Friday, May 11, 2007

CXOAG Guru Grades


If you believe that past forecasting performance indicates future accuracy (skill, wisdom), you might want to keep tabs on the forecasts of Ken Fisher (and his self-described analysis methodology, "Forecasting (Macro and Micro) and Future Concepts"). If you believe in reversals of fortune, you might follow Bill Fleckenstein. On the third hand, if you expect mean reversion in forecasting (pure luck), you might prefer the "cone of silence". A fourth alternative is to apply Bayesian updating and weight the predictions of experts according to their evolving track records.

Source: CXOAG Guru Grades

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