Monday, March 03, 2008

BullRunner, following the Market

Gold hit $990/oz today before dropping back to $983... still on it's way to $1000?

Gold, sitting at $975/oz is getting dangerously close to my "1 month or so" $1000/oz call.

BullRunner, following the Market

I seem to remember bailing on gold at $700 in May of 2006, after getting in at $580.  At the time I thought it was a good call, since the price of the metal plunged back to $590 before recovering.  The metal became range-bound between $620 - $680 for almost 6 months in 2007, before the credit crisis boogeyman and the Bernanke put brought it up past the $800 mark.

Right now there's not a long way to go to $1000/oz... but my guess is that we round up just past $1k and then drop back to low $800 by May.

Based on the 1 year RSI we're way overbought here, for GLD anyway.  Unless we see some more serious writedowns, that is...

But are investors too shellshocked to care about writedowns?

Hurt by the deepening credit crisis, Bank of America Corp. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell 95 per cent, and Wachovia Corp. reported that profit tumbled 98 per cent.

And of course, Buffett is bottom-feeding.

"We were getting calls on large portfolios," Mr Buffett said in an interview on CNBC yesterday. "People who were out on a limb financially are getting that limb sawed off."

I wonder if this relates to the news about all the size 12 feet surfacing on Canada's coastlines.

If it was the right hand or left foot, the US could blame it on Iran.

But really, is the USD weakening, or is it just that the Yuan is tightening?

The PBOC has let the yuan rise much more quickly in recent weeks. The currency climbed as high as 7.1122 per dollar on Thursday, the highest level since it was depegged from the dollar in July 2005 and allowed to float within managed bands.

Exchange rates probably have a lot to do with what's going on in world markets, and what's going on with the economy.  Things are tough for Canadian manufacturers, especially the paper mills who have seen profits plummet.

"The dollar is by far the worst of all our problems," he told the committee Thursday

Amero, anyone?  One solution to the strong Canadian dollar would be to place it in the same basket with Mexico & the USD, and maybe throw in Zimbabwe dollars. 

Ameroz for all...

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