Xbox.com | Forum - Contacted Activision about the online play. WARNING, LONG POST!#745704

Xbox.com Forum - Contacted Activision about the online play. WARNING, LONG POST!#745704: "alright fellas:

I am a telemarketer licensed in over 20 states. i used to work for the largest chain of call centers in the US."

Apparently this guy struck a chord with everyone who bought Call of Duty ii for Xbox 360.

I hope Activision, Microsoft, or Infinity Ward releases some sort of patch or downloadable DVD that will add some new missions and fix live play for everyone. Otherwise, EA is going to stomp them in the markets.

Sorry Jim Cramer... I was wrong... Activision is in for a ride.

Financial Risk Management

Search for 'ignoring stop loss limits' has some interesting posts around risk management & ethical trading.

Thanks everyone for your comments. As people rightly surmised, my hypothetical situation was based largely on fact. While I spoke of it in the current tense, it actually happened a short while ago, and I am now trying to make sense of it all. As things transpired, the manager's let the position ride. The market did reverse itself, and we made back almost the entire loss. The parent company is none the wiser.

The Optionetics Trading Approach - Articles

The Optionetics Trading Approach - Articles: "Stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit."

The Optionetics Trading Approach - Articles

"The Tony Robbins, Zig Ziglars, and W. Clement Stones of the world all bark the same repackaged message. To be successful, one needs to strive for improvement, keep a positive attitude and most importantly follow the blueprint some predecessor used to accomplish their goal. In the world of trading, the three names that come to my mind as the epitome of success are Russell 'The Money King' Sage, Jesse 'The Boy Plunger' Livermore and Warren 'The Sage of Omaha' Buffett. Yes, even Omaha has a sage."

I thought he was the Oracle of Omaha.

Anyway, good article.

Publications and Research - Periodicals - Weekly Financial Statistics - Bank of Canada

Publications and Research - Periodicals - Weekly Financial Statistics - Bank of Canada: "This document provides key banking and money market statistics. It is updated each Friday afternoon:"

RealMoney Radio Mailbag: Turn On Activision

RealMoney Radio Mailbag: Turn Off Activision: "James J. Cramer: While I believe the video game industry's fortunes will turn soon, I prefer Electronic Arts (ERTS:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to Activision due to its superior product lineup. I believe the recent decline in Electronic Arts has taken out some of the risk, and I would be a buyer here."

I think I'll follow the George Costanza rule of thumb and disagree here, Jim. booyah!

Activision Xbox 360: Call of Duty 2, Quake 4, X-Men, Tony Hawk, Gun

EA: 360 Sports games (Madden, Fifa, Tiger, Fight Night)

I think Jim's a football fan. Most of the guys I know would be buying Call of Duty 2 over Madden.

Both companies have 0 debt & lots of cash.

EA Quarterly Earnings Growth: -47.40%
Activision Quarterly Earnings Growth: N/A?

Activision 10-day vol of 9.7M
EA 10-day of 4.7M

EA @ 53.37
ATVI @ 13.51 (After a bunch of splits.)
EA - 16 SEC filings
ATVI - 26.

After reading Masters of Doom, about the two guys who founded id software, it seems like Activision would be the better play of the two. EA seems like a monolith, with 6,100 employees vs. Activision's 1,728.

Of course, EA has The Sims.... and TakeTwo owns Rockstar Games... hmm... TakeTwo...

TakeTwo has 1,435 employees, and (only) 1.25B market cap.

P/E is only 15.37 for take-two. 44 for both atvi & erts. Is TakeTwo the underdog here?

Of course, Jack Johnson bought some stock to go to the shareholders meetings to protest. But PT Barnum would approve of the publicity...

TakeTwo has no Xbox 360 games though??? Also, TakeTwo's site doesn't distinguish between platforms like the other two, which seemed to be ripping off each other's ideas.

I still like the old Atari & Intellivision games, so I think Activision may still have something left.

Atlantis, Barnstorming, Boxing, Chopper Command, Crackpot, Cosmic Commuter, Dolphin, Dragster, Enduro, Fishing Derby, Freeway, Frostbite, Grand Prix, HERO, Ice Hockey, Kaboom!, Keystone Kapers, Laser Blast, Megamania, Pitfall, Plaque Attack, River Raid, River Raid II, Seaquest, Skiing, Sky Jinx, Spider Fighter, Stampede, Starmaster, and Tennis.

Why banks hold the highest-risk corporate debt possible

1998 -
By this time, shortcomings with the original accord's treatment of credit risk were becoming evident. The simple system of risk weightings provided an incentive for banks to hold the 0% risk-weighted debt of G-10 governments (a fact viewed with some cynicism, since those same governments were largely responsible for the original accord). However, such debt tended to be unprofitable. Far more profitable for banks was corporate debt, which was weighted 100%. With all corporate debt being weighted equally, it made sense for banks to hold the most risky corporate debt. Higher quality corporate debt incurred exactly the same capital charges but was less profitable.

During this period, markets for credit derivatives and securitizations grew explosively. It was an open secret that banks were employing these to take advantage of shortcomings in the 1988 Accord's crude system of risk weights. This practice is called regulatory arbitrage.

Another issue during this period was operational risk. Operational risk poses significant risk for banks. It includes a variety of contingencies including fraud—and fraud is routinely a factor in bank failures. Neither the original Basel Accord nor the 1996 Amendment required capital for operational risk.

In January 1999, the Basel Committee proposed a new capital accord, which has come to be known as Basel II. There followed an extensive consultative period, with the committee releasing additional proposals for consultation in January 2001 and April 2003. It also conducting three quantitative impact studies to assess those proposals.

The time value of money

riskglossary.com
The present value of a dollar to be received in a year is less than the present value of that dollar if it were received today. We call this the time value of money. Financial markets use spot curves, forward curves, discount curves and yield curves to describe the time value of money. These are referred to collectively as the fixed income term structure. This article defines these notions.

A cash loan is a loan that commences immediately. A spot loan is a loan that commences spot. A forward loan is one that commences on some date later than spot. For example, in the Eurodollar markets a three-month spot loan commences in two business days (spot) and matures three months after that. A 27 forward loan commences two months from the spot date and lasts for five months. With either type of loan, interest can be paid periodically or it can be accumulated and paid at maturity.

A spot interest rate for maturity m is an interest rate payable on a spot loan of maturity m that accumulates interest to maturity. Spot rates are sometimes called zero-coupon rates because they are the rates of interest payable on obligations that accumulate all interest to maturity. Libor rates for maturities of a week or more are spot rates.

The most expensive training out there?

Master's in Financial Engineering (MFE) Program - Certificate in Financial Engineering: "Haas Certificate in Financial Engineering
If you cannot afford 12 months away from work to get up to speed with the new developments in the fast evolving field of financial engineering, we invite you to enroll in an intensive one-month certificate program.

The Haas Certificate in Financial Engineering (CFE) program provides investment professionals with the state-of-the-art skills in financial engineering that have recently revolutionized the finance field. The CFE program is a new one-month intensive course taught by the top Haas Finance Faculty, creators of the highly successful Berkeley Master�s in Financial Engineering program. The program is presented in two 2-week modules, both of which must be completed to receive the certificate. "

riskbook.com

Excellent site for financial risk analysis.

Why pizza is unhealthy in small slices

The Pizza Theory of Business Valuation: "The Pizza Story

Imagine that you have gone to a pizza restaurant with a very hungry friend. You are sitting at your table waiting impatiently for the waiter to take your order. The waiter eventually arrives and takes your order. He, then, turns to your friend, who is, by now, quite starved. Your friend tells the waiter:"

"Please get me a cheese pizza as quickly as you can and because I am very hungry today, please make sure that the Chef cuts my pizza into twelve slices instead of eight."

The waiter looks at your friend in a puzzled way, scratches his head and walks towards the kitchen. Equally puzzled, you ask your friend to explain his irrational behaviour. He tells you:

"If I request that my pizza be cut into twelve slices instead of the usual eight, then the total amount of pizza I will get to eat will be more than before. The size of my pizza depends upon the number of slices it is cut into. If you don't believe me, take a look at what happens in the corporate world and the stockmarket."

Why investing is a lot like my golf game

Investing is a loser's game: "Amateur tennis, Dr Ramo found, is almost entirely different. Brilliant shots, long and exciting rallies, and seemingly miraculous recoveries are few and far between. On the other hand, the ball is fairly often hit into the nets or out of the boundary, and double faults at service are not uncommon. The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. When two amateurs are playing each other, the victor in the game of tennis gets a higher score because his opponent is losing even more points."

Bill Cara GICS: Overview

"The mere fact you think that securities trading is 'investing' is testament to the fact the sell-side has educated you to think in terms of them creating products and you buying them, and holding them.

If you want to invest in a company’s assets and operations, which is a direct investment, then you must study the company from the bottom up--i.e., balance sheet and income statement.

But if you want to trade in securities for purposes of creating wealth from portfolio investing, then you must first and foremost study the market from the top down, and that requires understanding the structure of markets.

And you were taught to believe that portfolio investing required a bottom-up approach. Ha!"

This is my new-found expert on Berkshire, Richard Losch, and his family.

Just found his web site and it has some excellent information on Berkshire Hathaway, its holdings, and further information on the markets. His last few letters have a negative spin to them, but I'm assuming because the market isn't really making a whole lot of sense (or returns) for the seasoned value investor. In addition, there's that "little" problem with China owning so much of the US it's not funny, plus the US dollar's loss over the last few years.

I'll be following his site closely. Looks like a great resource. Plus he's from Omaha, so he must be trustworthy. :)

On his friend who is a mortgage broker:
Losch Management - Client Letters - September 2005: "He is a happy camper with his present company because if a customer comes in with a FICO score of 700 or better, he can get a no documentation loan for 100% of the appraisal. (He said that he knew some good appraisers.) I asked what was clearly a stupid question. 'What kind debt-to-income ratio did the borrower have to show to get approved?' He gave me a look clearly reserved for the hopelessly naive and pointed out that since there was no documentation required, no application was ever submitted that did not show enough income. As Charlie says, 'All human systems are gamed.' Now as far as human misjudgment is concerned, in addition to the lollapalooza effect mentioned earlier, we have a big nasty lump of incentive-caused bias added."

Losch Management - Home: "It says something about the nature of the current market when it is easier to make money by taking short-term gains than it is with buy and hold. We much prefer the long term buy-hold approach (provides us with more leisure time). However, with the capital markets flooded with surplus investment funds from all over the world, we see little chance that the returns will be any better this year than it was last year."

Losch Management - Client Letters - November 2005: "The current bull market that began in January of 2003 is now about three years old, and by traditional standards would be considered to be getting a bit long of tooth. Re-enforcing this view is the fact that most of the gain was in the first 12 months of the rally. Whereas for the last two years the market has mostly been range bound. Currently there is a division of opinion between the bulls who feel the market is ready to break out of its trading range and ascend skyward and the bears who claim that the sky is about to fall in."

Sanjay Bakshi: "I am a combination of a chartered accountant, a value investor, a hostile takeover artist, a shareholder activist, and a finance professor. So you can see my world revolves around high finance. But high finance is not the most beautiful thing in the world. That space is reserved for Aishwarya Rai, the most beautiful woman in the world. I am a fan."

Warren Buffet - Tuck Investment Club: "Summary:
For the 2nd consecutive year, 49 second-year Tuck students and Professor Robert Howell flew to Omaha, Nebraska for a two-hour Q&A session with legendary investor Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Mr. Buffett took us all to lunch at Gorat's steakhouse after our meeting. Prior to our meeting we took a private tour of Berkshire-owned Nebraska Furniture Mart with EVP Bob Batt. "

CBC News Indepth: Gold: "Should I buy gold and if so, how can I get some?

Financial planners generally advise their clients who want a stake in gold to keep their precious metals holdings to a small part of their overall portfolio � at most five or 10 per cent.

There are many ways to acquire gold. You can buy gold coins, gold wafers or bars, or gold certificates. "

DeepWealth: "In fact, the properties required of money were first described by Aristotle in the fourth century BCE.
It is durable. It won't evaporate, mildew, rust, crumble, break, or rot. Gold, more than any other solid element, is chemically inert. This is why foodstuffs, oil or artwork can't be used as money.

It is divisible. One ounce of gold-whether bullion, coin, or dust-is worth exactly 1/100th of one hundred ounces. When a diamond is split, its value may be destroyed. You can't make change for a piece of land.

It is convenient. Gold allows its owner physically to carry the wealth of a lifetime with him. Real estate stays where it is. An equivalent value of copper, lead, zinc, silver, and most other metals would be too heavy.

It is consistent. Only one grade exists for 24-carat gold, so there is no danger of owning 24-carat gold varying in quality. Twenty-four-carat gold (pure gold) is the same in every time and place since gold is a natural element, unlike gems, artwork, land, grain, or other commodities.

It has intrinsic value. Gold finds new industrial uses each year. Of all the metals, it is the most malleable (able to be hammered into sheets less than 5-millionths of an inch thick), most ductile (a single ounce can be drawn into a wire 35 miles long), and the least reactive (it can stand indefinite immersion in seawater, does not tarnish in air, and can withstand almost any acid). Next to silver, it's the most conductive of heat and electricity and the most reflective of light.
One important last point was not listed by Aristotle, probably only because he lived before the creation of paper and banking.
Gold cannot be created by government. Gold can, of course, be debased with impurities or falsified in weight, and governments strapped for revenue have tried those tricks. "

Jackpot!: "Red Herring Announces Inaugural Red Herring Small Cap 100 List
Monday December 12, 12:02 am ET

Winners Will Be Honored at the Red Herring Fall 2005 Conference
SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 12, 2005 -- Red Herring announced today its first Red Herring Small Cap 100 list. The editors of the Red Herring evaluated over 2,500 publicly traded technology companies with market capitalizations of between US$300 million and US$1 billion from North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region."

Value Investors Club - Club for Value Investing

DeepWealth: ">Investment Axioms
Some axioms based on several excellent books on the vast and fascinating subject of stock market investment like 'One Up the Wall Street'; 'Beating the Street'; both by Peter Lynch; 'Zulu Principle' by Jim Slater; 'The Warren Buffet Way'; to name only a few of them.

Axiom One:
Where there is profit, there is always risk. Greater the opportunity of profit, greater the possibility of loss:
There is a close direct relationship between the risk and the reward. Higher the reward, greater the risk. Though this is fairly simple, it is always observed in breach.

Axiom Two:
Gentlemen who prefer BONDS, don't know what they are missing. On Bonds, there is no return ON our money; there is only return OF our money:
Bonds being Debt instruments unlike equity, yield only fixed return and with inflation and income tax factored in, there is often no return at all.

Axiom Three:
Equity Investment is 'risk' investment:
Investing in equity shares of companies is risk related because returns are linked to the company's profits unlike investing in bank deposits or bonds or debentures where the returns are fixed and accrue to investors regardless of the company's profits.

Axiom Four:
Stock market behaviour is unpredictable:
Stock market behaviour is dependent on human behaviour and since times immemorial, it has been established that human behaviour can never be predicted with any reasonable accuracy; and hence we have fluctuations in prices of commodities, things and stocks based on greed, emotions, hopes, fantasies, fear and dreams resulting in opportunities of making money out of such fluctuations!

Axiom Five:
ot all common stocks are common:
Though equity shares as an investment class is one, each company has a distinc"

Shai Dardashti on Grahamian Value: Value Investing in 2005 is *not* strictly an American game anymore.: "At the 2005 Berkshire meeting, Warren Buffett said simply that the age at which one begins investing is the best determinant of success. Not IQ. Value investors of Indian and Asian descent are

(a) starting much younger than American, (as per point #1)
(b) just as smart (as per point #2)
(c) very, very dedicated. (as per point #3)"

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