Shrunken Head Coins

These are GENUINE Coins that have been shrunk by incredibly powerful magnetic fields!
Shrunken coins are amazing and unique... and they are only available from us

Ethical Investing

Companies excluded from Norway's Pension Fund, the largest in Europe.

Bradley Model

In 1948, Mr. Donald A. Bradley wrote a research booklet, "Stock Market Prediction -- The Planetary Barometer and How to Use It," on mass psychology and its impact on the U.S. stock market. The booklet is long since out of print and the publisher has indicated no future plan to republish his work.

At the heart of Bradley's work is the belief that elusive natural forces powerfully affect men's minds and emotions. These forces are the broad cycles which determine underlying trends in world economic and political affairs over years, decades, and beyond. Bradley concluded that the planetary aspects are the secret engine behind the cycles in mass psychology and he proved they are frequently revealed in the stock market. Bradley found that the sum of planetary relationships, involving 190 planetary position combinations, could be categorized into what he called the Long-Term and Middle-Term Indicators.

Those found currently using Bradley's theory are few and they closely guard what they know and reveal on the subject. At the end of an almost endless trail, we finally obtained a copy of Bradley's research. After studying his work, a decision was made to implement the intensive computations into a Microsoft Windows application. It's hard to believe Bradley completed his research without the benefit of a computer, doing the thousands of calculations by hand.

Warren Buffett - A Compilation

List of many Buffett-related articles.

http://valuestockplus.blogspot.com/2006/09/warren-...

New Powershares ETFs

PSP -- PowerShares Listed Private Equity Portfolio - Potential High Risk, trades in publicly-listed companies that use private equity. It's stock symbol PSP should play to the teenager crowd.
PUW -- (Phew?) PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy Portfolio - Contains Honda, Toyota, Siemens.  The index has been rising steadily since Oct 3, dropping only once. 

 

9/1/2006 226.54
9/5/2006 226.89
9/6/2006 221.06
9/7/2006 219.47
9/8/2006 219.63
9/11/2006 216.75
9/12/2006 221.63
9/13/2006 221.89
9/14/2006 222.58
9/15/2006 222.78
9/18/2006 223.28
9/19/2006 219.94
9/20/2006 221.58
9/21/2006 219.65
9/22/2006 216.22
9/25/2006 218.03
9/26/2006 220.65
9/27/2006 222.04
9/28/2006 223.58
9/29/2006 221.55
10/2/2006 220.27
10/3/2006 218.32
10/04/2006 222.55
10/05/2006 225.16
10/06/2006 223.97
10/09/2006 224.92
10/10/2006 226.88
10/11/2006 226.55
10/12/2006 229.82

PZD -- PowerShares Cleantech(TM) Portfolio

The unfortunately-named PZD sounds like something that just got electricuted. If you believe in the electric car conspiracy, these may not be the funds you're looking for.

Cleantech Index™
The Cleantech Index™ (CTIUS) includes over 50 US publicly traded "clean" technology companies that offer a diverse range of products, services, and processes designed to improve productivity and efficiency, while reducing environmental impact. The CTIUS includes nine sectors that span industries such as alternative energy, water resources and purification, advanced materials, and logistics. All of the companies in the CTIUS are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, or the American Stock Exchange. [more]

September proved a difficult month for some alternative energy stocks. Shares of ethanol companies dropped as the price of ethanol dipped to $1.75 and its use as an alternative to MBTE may have hit its cap.

During September, the major stock indices rose on lower-than-average volume. Through Sept. 28, the Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed a hefty 4 percent. By comparison, the Cleantech Index™ declined 2 percent as weak performance from select alternative energy stocks (Distributed Energy Systems Corp. [DESC], (35 percent); KFx Inc. [KFX], (34.6 percent); and Capstone Turbine [CPST], (34.6 percent)). The index experienced a 10 percent-or-greater decline in 15 of its 68 constituents), while 10 stocks rose 10 percent or more (APCC, MDTL, DIOD, INGR, PLL, WLM, DCI, ENER, SUPX, and GTI). Overall, 31 constituents rose while 37 declined. A number of cleantech companies made announcements or were affected by macro trends in September. The following are some of the more significant ones.

 

Cleantech Index Top 10 Positions

   Company Name
Symbol
% Weight

Medis Technologies Ltd
MDTL
1.92%

Energy Conversion Devices Inc
ENER
1.80%

Maxwell Technologies Inc
MXWL
1.73%

Ballard Power Systems
BLDP
1.70%

Plug Power Inc
PLUG
1.69%

Power-One Inc
PWER
1.69%

Zoltek Cos Inc
ZOLT
1.67%

Synargro Tech
SYGR
1.65%

Emcore Corp
EMKR
1.64%

Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd
STP
1.63%

Uranium hits the roof

Earlier today Cameco said the underground flooding occurred yesterday after a rock fall at the mine, which is located 660 kilometers (410 miles) north of Saskatoon.

``Efforts to protect the main shaft and key underground infrastructure by closing bulkhead doors were not successful,'' the company said in second statement.

Uranium Participation (U.TO) skyrockets. Cameco (CCJ) dives.

Retiring soon?

This is all short-term thinking of course – driven by Canada’s major banks. Their executive managers and directors are merely facilitating a process of turning Toronto into a second class player in global capital markets, so that they can then say to govt in Ottawa they need to merge with a foreign giant bank.

Of course, that means being taken over, where the head offices also depart the country, and those executive officers and directors all retire to Bermuda and Palm Beach with their suitcases loaded with tens of millions.

-- Bill Cara

This is the second time today I have seen mention of selling off banking assets to foreign investors which would happen with the next majority government.

First go Canadian mining & steel companies to foreign investors without a peep from government. What's the next largest sector on the TSX? Financials.

This appears to be economic warfare at its finest. Why go to war when cash is king?

The next Canadian election year could be 2009. The US election could be in 2010. In 2010 the boomers have retired. Will they really be retiring south?

How many people will be cashing out their RRSPs and living like Alex Doulis?

New Yahoo Finance Sidebar

Yahoo has a new service where you can add stock charts and a portfolio of stocks to your web site.

Looks good so far...

Ford misled investors?

Bill Cara speaks about Ford stock today, down 9.4%

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

Just for kicks, the following is a totally unscientific GoogleStatStudy of the auto makers:

# Results - Search Term
182,000 Toyota misled
155,000 Nissan misled
68,000 Hyundai misled
38,100 Ford misled
29,700 Mazda misled
27,800 GM misled
13,500 Acura misled
6,760 Mitsubishi misled
6,680 BMW misled
7,090 Mercedes misled
4,940 Chrysler misled
1,490 Subaru misled
1,410 "Mini Cooper" misled

And the top car brand to mislead?
194,000 Dodge misled


Now why is it I haven't bought a Mini Cooper yet?

Popping stocks out of tradeshows

I wonder if there is a way to trade pops after speakers promote stocks at tradeshows and conferences?

The Traders Expo • Ft. Lauderdale


June 7–10, 2006, Greater Ft. Lauderdale Broward County Convention Center, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Chart Toppers with Prophet.NET

Good link to minicharts

Useful bulletins

Tech Talk  from Union Securities offers several bulletins on the markets.

Jitney on the cheap

Bill Cara's been talking about stock promotion on his blog this week, and hopefully will be releasing his book soon. :)

Here's something I came across called Jitneying, or falsfying volume by churning the stock.

The Jitney Game

Do you ever wonder about these small cap stocks that post a tiny bit of volume and then just climb and climb? One minute the
stock is trading for C$1.33 and with very little volume runs to C$2.50. Amazing? Not at all. It is the jitney game at work. This
practice is SO pervasive in the small cap market that I thought you should know about it. Otherwise, you'll get trapped in the
jitney game and lose a bundle. There are many depths to it and variations on it.

Does China publish M3 for Yuan?

I would be interested to see how much they've been printing...


The China Stock Blog » Labeling China a Currency Manipulator (ETFs: FXI, PGJ): "This is just one possibility. I would be surprised if any byproduct of the China situation turns out to be truly dire, negative and noticeable sure but not dire.

This is one reason why I have maintained Chinese exposure personally and for most clients. I own iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF: FXI) personally, and some clients own one of the Chinese oil companies. The yuan rising creates a little tailwind for Chinese stocks along the lines of what I wrote about yesterday."

Cash is The King? Elvis it ain't...

Bill Cara: FUBAR or Foobar, we all recognize it, Fri., Apr. 28, 2006, 9:28 AM: "Circumstances in free markets today are such that �borrow and spend� has gone overboard, and the world is afloat in paper money seeking an economic return.
But the two people in the world who have the most money (and by definition the most opportunities and research and management resources) have each decided that things are too FUBAR to sensibly put that money at risk.
Yes, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett have decided that holding cash is the prudent thing to do until the world gets its act together."

They've been accumulating cash for awhile now. Warren because there's "no deals to be had in the market" and Bill, well, probably to fight all those legal battles.

I would like to see Warren pay out a dividend, even though he said he would never do something like that it would really stir the markets. (+ the stock)

Are you a Corporate Ho?

Its time for all shareholders to realize they have a responsibility as owners of stock. That if you dont fulfill that obligation, you are nothing more than a corporate Ho and your share of stock is nothing more than a baseball card, worth what the next Ho will pay for it.

Dont be a Ho.

I like to compare stocks to baseball cards, since really that's what you're buying. It's something collectible that somebody else will either pay more or less for. It's not like you, as a small-time investor, would have any pull whatsoever.

"Hit a home run, Strawberry!"

"Ok Skip!"

Ronald Reagan's favourite economist - Wendy Lee Gramm

Wendy Lee Gramm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "In her role at the Mercatus Center, Wendy Gramm generally calls for deregulation of the energy industry.

Previously, Wendy Gramm held several positions in the Reagan Administration, including heading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. After a heavy lobbying campaign from Enron the CFTC exempted it from regulation in trading of energy derivatives. Gramm headed the commission from 1988 to 1993 following which she resigned and took a seat on the Enron Board of Directors where she was paid 1.85 million dollars. Enron used this lack of federal oversight to engage in its widely publicized accounting scandal. While on the board of directors she received donations from Enron to support the Mercatus Center."

Ronald Reagan's favourite economist - Wendy Lee Gramm

<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Lee_Gramm">Wendy Lee Gramm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "In her role at the Mercatus Center, Wendy Gramm generally calls for deregulation of the energy industry.

Previously, Wendy Gramm held several positions in the Reagan Administration, including heading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. After a heavy lobbying campaign from Enron the CFTC exempted it from regulation in trading of energy derivatives. Gramm headed the commission from 1988 to 1993 following which she resigned and took a seat on the Enron Board of Directors where she was paid 1.85 million dollars. Enron used this lack of federal oversight to engage in its widely publicized accounting scandal. While on the board of directors she received donations from Enron to support the Mercatus Center."

Some key statistics - M3 is back

Some key statistics: "M3 is back
We did some sleuthing and data extraction and put M3 back together from various weekly Federal Reserve reports that are still available.

The formula we're using has five 9s correlation to the original data back to 1980.

There is only one missing element that is apparently no longer available (Eurodollars) and an adjustment has been applied to generate it. Its only about 3% of total M3 so should not have a material effect on the total.

Here is a very little known Fed press release that tells more of the real story with M3, and on which we based the idea and concept of the reconstruction. "

Why 1973 is like 2006 -- Tuesday, February 27, 1973

British Columbia is still nuclear free after 33 years.

Hansard -- Tuesday, February 27, 1973: "MR. BROUSSON: The last spring session, I'm sorry. Mr. Chairman, this winter the Premier has been heard to say that he has some kind of a hang-up with nuclear power. He's been reading some learned tomes which now have further convinced him that there will be no nuclear power in British Columbia, he says -without discussion, without stating his reasons, without further examining the matter.
I was privileged last June, Mr. Chairman, to have a very thorough and a very exhaustive trip - I would say a very exhausting trip - through the Pickering nuclear plant just east of Toronto, run by Ontario Hydro. I would recommend this particular trip to the Premier and to anybody in this Legislature who is interested in this subject, before they go out and make statements about whether nuclear power is good, bad or indifferent. I think this is a worthwhile study to be made.
This particular plant will consist of four reactors, each one 540 megawatts, so that the four, when they're finished, will total 2,160 megawatts of power. In that one power plant, Mr. Chairman, you will have slightly more than one-half of B.C. Hydro's total generating capacity - in that one power plant in Pickering, about 20 miles east of Toronto.
Reactor No. I has been going now for about a year and a half. It was shut down during my visit because it was having at the end of its first year a routine check of the turbine blades. One of the interesting things about this visit was to see the turbine completely stripped down and spread around the power house, while the blades and the other internal workings were being examined to see what condition it was in after its first year of operation. The report on that first year's operation was just 100 per cent. They were delighted with the results they found.
"

Reactors No. 2 and 3 at that time had been operating on full-rated load for many, many months. I saw the chart which showed that they'd been on 98 to 99 per cent of full-rated power for many, many months, That's reactors 2 and 3. Reactor 4 was at that point still under construction. As a result, I had the privilege of walking through the entire internal area of the reactor and seeing the internal workings of it, the safety regulations, how it was constructed, the various things that were going to be done to make it safe.

Interjection by an Hon. Member.

MR. BROUSSON: I've got the figures all here in this file, if you want to look at it, through you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman, the Ontario Hydro is doing virtually all of the construction costs of Pickering. There certainly has been federal government involvement in some of the others. The figures are all in this file for you.

If what I saw at Pickering in this development is an experiment, as Mr. Williston used to call it, I wonder what he would consider to be conclusive evidence. If the Premier has a hang-up about it, I think he should go and look at it and see exactly how it works and learn something about it from the people who have designed it and who are building it.

HON. MR. BARRETT: What about the wastes?

MR. BROUSSON: I don't mind saying that I was tremendously impressed by Pickering and by what I've been able to learn of it since. I would personally be prepared to start planning a nuclear plant for Vancouver Island right now. This is a project that would take at least five years to plan and construct. So, even if we started now, it would be 1978, 1979 perhaps, before it would be ready to go on line.

. I know there are problems, Mr. Chairman. But I think the greatest problem we have in terms of nuclear power in British Columbia are fear and ignorance. In my view, we can be very proud of the Canadian achievements in this field. We have probably the finest nuclear power system in the world - the Candu system. It's certainly the safest. The major concern is that eventually, modern science being what it is, there are probably going to be improvements that will make this plant old-fashioned sooner or later. But I don't think that's any reason why B.C. shouldn't be a part of going forward in the nuclear age today.

For one thing, Mr. Chairman, B.C. Hydro needs to develop a nucleus of knowledgeable people in this field. Right now there are only one or two people in the entire staff of B.C. Hydro who are really knowledgeable from a technical point of view of nuclear power generation. I think B.C. should do its share in training people in this field, and that B.C. Hydro should have a nucleus of people who have some knowledge of it.

I'd like to, as I mentioned, Mr. Chairman, look briefly at some of the major points that are problems in this regard. First, danger from accident. I believe that the safety controls that we have under the Candu system - C-a-n-d-u - which is the name for the Canadian system - are completely adequate and safe. I say without fear of contradiction that Canada has the safest nuclear power system in the world.

Danger from radiation has been one of the things that have been suggested as problems. Our standards at present are exactly the same as the safety standards of the United States. But the actual escape of radiation in the water or through the air at Pickering and others has proven to be only about I per cent of those standards. In other words, we could raise those standards by 100 times and still be within the practical operating limit of Pickering.

Thermal pollution has been listed as one of the dangers, one of the problems. Well, it can be a problem in some places. I suppose if you're building a nuclear power plant in Florida and places of that kind - perhaps Hawaii, southern California - where the waters are warm, this may be a serious problem, But it's certainly not true on the Pacific coast of British Columbia. In fact, it's very clear from the basis of scientific knowledge becoming available that there are advantages to come from this in terms of oyster farming and a number of other potential benefits, Perhaps the most nagging and serious problem at the present time is that of waste disposal. This is not one of immediate urgency. For, at the very least, the first 13 years of a Candu nuclear power plant, the waste can be contained completely within the premises in what is called the spent fuel bay, which is approximately the same size as an Olympic swimming pool, only deeper. The waste fuel is canned - put into heavy-duty cans - and kept under water securely. The U.S. does have some real problems, some serious problems, because they enrich their fuel by 100 times compared to the Canadian system. The American fuel is enriched uranium. Ours is natural uranium. That factor of 100 makes a great deal of difference to the danger of the spent fuel.

There's no question, Mr. Chairman, that in the long-term future we have to provide for this. I've got abiding faith in our technology to solve this problem. In the short-term, in the foreseeable future, in terms of a few small power plants, this is not any kind of a problem at all.

As far as cost, our system of heavy water and natural uranium does cost a little more than the United States'. But the fuel is cheaper because we use natural, not enriched, uranium. The fact is that our long-term operating costs are less but our first cost is a little higher. As a result of that first cost, we get a safer system.

If you assume a 71/2 per cent interest rate, which is higher than the last issue of Hydro parity bonds, and retire the capital cost over only 30 years, the operating cost of a Vancouver Island nuclear power plant has been estimated to be 63/4 mills per kilowatt hour for a 1979 start-up. Yet some estimates for a natural gas thermal plant on Vancouver Island under the same conditions are 9.1 mills, approximately 30 per cent more.

It's clear that natural gas is not going to come down in price; whereas the materials needed for a nuclear plant - which in the case of the Canadian system are the heavy water, estimated to be 2/10 mill per kilowatt hour and the natural uranium, about 9/10 mill per kilowatt hour - are certainly going to be resistant to the inflation and the rising cost of other kinds of fuel.

The final problem that the Canadian system does have is heavy water. The source of this is perhaps the biggest immediate problem for the Canadian system. There is a serious shortage at the present time. By 1977 there could well be a surplus, on the basis of plants that are under construction and will be on stream by 1977. And 1977 is well before we are going to be needing it in British Columbia.

So to summarize, Mr. Chairman, it's clear that a Canadian nuclear power system is safe, economic and practical. Least a beginning in its use should be made in British Columbia in certain selected areas. Vancouver Island, for the reasons I suggested, is an ideal place for it.

The world hasn't changed a bit -- Tuesday, February 27, 1973

British Columbia is still nuclear-free after 33 years.

Hansard -- Tuesday, February 27, 1973: "MR. BROUSSON: The last spring session, I'm sorry. Mr. Chairman, this winter the Premier has been heard to say that he has some kind of a hang-up with nuclear power. He's been reading some learned tomes which now have further convinced him that there will be no nuclear power in British Columbia, he says -without discussion, without stating his reasons, with-
[ Page 810 ]
out further examining the matter.
I was privileged last June, Mr. Chairman, to have a very thorough and a very exhaustive trip - I would say a very exhausting trip - through the Pickering nuclear plant just east of Toronto, run by Ontario Hydro. I would recommend this particular trip to the Premier and to anybody in this Legislature who is interested in this subject, before they go out and make statements about whether nuclear power is good, bad or indifferent. I think this is a worthwhile study to be made.
This particular plant will consist of four reactors, each one 540 megawatts, so that the four, when they're finished, will total 2,160 megawatts of power. In that one power plant, Mr. Chairman, you will have slightly more than one-half of B.C. Hydro's total generating capacity - in that one power plant in Pickering, about 20 miles east of Toronto.
Reactor No. I has been going now for about a year and a half. It was shut down during my visit because it was having at the end of its first year a routine check of the turbine blades. One of the interesting things about this visit was to see the turbine completely stripped down and spread around the power house, while the blades and the other internal workings were being examined to see what condition it was in after its first year of operation. The report on that first year's operation was just 100 per cent. They were delighted with the results they found.
"

Reactors No. 2 and 3 at that time had been operating on full-rated load for many, many months. I saw the chart which showed that they'd been on 98 to 99 per cent of full-rated power for many, many months, That's reactors 2 and 3. Reactor 4 was at that point still under construction. As a result, I had the privilege of walking through the entire internal area of the reactor and seeing the internal workings of it, the safety regulations, how it was constructed, the various things that were going to be done to make it safe.

Interjection by an Hon. Member.

MR. BROUSSON: I've got the figures all here in this file, if you want to look at it, through you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman, the Ontario Hydro is doing virtually all of the construction costs of Pickering. There certainly has been federal government involvement in some of the others. The figures are all in this file for you.

If what I saw at Pickering in this development is an experiment, as Mr. Williston used to call it, I wonder what he would consider to be conclusive evidence. If the Premier has a hang-up about it, I think he should go and look at it and see exactly how it works and learn something about it from the people who have designed it and who are building it.

HON. MR. BARRETT: What about the wastes?

MR. BROUSSON: I don't mind saying that I was tremendously impressed by Pickering and by what I've been able to learn of it since. I would personally be prepared to start planning a nuclear plant for Vancouver Island right now. This is a project that would take at least five years to plan and construct. So, even if we started now, it would be 1978, 1979 perhaps, before it would be ready to go on line.

. I know there are problems, Mr. Chairman. But I think the greatest problem we have in terms of nuclear power in British Columbia are fear and ignorance. In my view, we can be very proud of the Canadian achievements in this field. We have probably the finest nuclear power system in the world - the Candu system. It's certainly the safest. The major concern is that eventually, modern science being what it is, there are probably going to be improvements that will make this plant old-fashioned sooner or later. But I don't think that's any reason why B.C. shouldn't be a part of going forward in the nuclear age today.

For one thing, Mr. Chairman, B.C. Hydro needs to develop a nucleus of knowledgeable people in this field. Right now there are only one or two people in the entire staff of B.C. Hydro who are really knowledgeable from a technical point of view of nuclear power generation. I think B.C. should do its share in training people in this field, and that B.C. Hydro should have a nucleus of people who have some knowledge of it.

I'd like to, as I mentioned, Mr. Chairman, look briefly at some of the major points that are problems in this regard. First, danger from accident. I believe that the safety controls that we have under the Candu system - C-a-n-d-u - which is the name for the Canadian system - are completely adequate and safe. I say without fear of contradiction that Canada has the safest nuclear power system in the world.

Danger from radiation has been one of the things that have been suggested as problems. Our standards at present are exactly the same as the safety standards of the United States. But the actual escape of radiation in the water or through the air at Pickering and others has proven to be only about I per cent of those standards. In other words, we could raise those standards by 100 times and still be within the practical operating limit of Pickering.

Thermal pollution has been listed as one of the dangers, one of the problems. Well, it can be a problem in some places. I suppose if you're building a nuclear power plant in Florida and places of that kind - perhaps Hawaii, southern California - where the waters are warm, this may be a serious problem, But it's certainly not true on the Pacific coast of British Columbia. In fact, it's very clear from the basis of

[ Page 811 ]

scientific knowledge becoming available that there are advantages to come from this in terms of oyster farming and a number of other potential benefits, Perhaps the most nagging and serious problem at the present time is that of waste disposal. This is not one of immediate urgency. For, at the very least, the first 13 years of a Candu nuclear power plant, the waste can be contained completely within the premises in what is called the spent fuel bay, which is approximately the same size as an Olympic swimming pool, only deeper. The waste fuel is canned - put into heavy-duty cans - and kept under water securely. The U.S. does have some real problems, some serious problems, because they enrich their fuel by 100 times compared to the Canadian system. The American fuel is enriched uranium. Ours is natural uranium. That factor of 100 makes a great deal of difference to the danger of the spent fuel.

There's no question, Mr. Chairman, that in the long-term future we have to provide for this. I've got abiding faith in our technology to solve this problem. In the short-term, in the foreseeable future, in terms of a few small power plants, this is not any kind of a problem at all.

As far as cost, our system of heavy water and natural uranium does cost a little more than the United States'. But the fuel is cheaper because we use natural, not enriched, uranium. The fact is that our long-term operating costs are less but our first cost is a little higher. As a result of that first cost, we get a safer system.

If you assume a 71/2 per cent interest rate, which is higher than the last issue of Hydro parity bonds, and retire the capital cost over only 30 years, the operating cost of a Vancouver Island nuclear power plant has been estimated to be 63/4 mills per kilowatt hour for a 1979 start-up. Yet some estimates for a natural gas thermal plant on Vancouver Island under the same conditions are 9.1 mills, approximately 30 per cent more.

It's clear that natural gas is not going to come down in price; whereas the materials needed for a nuclear plant - which in the case of the Canadian system are the heavy water, estimated to be 2/10 mill per kilowatt hour and the natural uranium, about 9/10 mill per kilowatt hour - are certainly going to be resistant to the inflation and the rising cost of other kinds of fuel.

The final problem that the Canadian system does have is heavy water. The source of this is perhaps the biggest immediate problem for the Canadian system. There is a serious shortage at the present time. By 1977 there could well be a surplus, on the basis of plants that are under construction and will be on stream by 1977. And 1977 is well before we are going to be needing it in British Columbia.

So to summarize, Mr. Chairman, it's clear that a Canadian nuclear power system is safe, economic and practical. Least a beginning in its use should be made in British Columbia in certain selected areas. Vancouver Island, for the reasons I suggested, is an ideal place for it.

Britain regaining superpower status?

For years the US has been the center of the universe for the wealthy & elite. Is that title moving back to Europe, and (indirectly) India?

India-born steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal tops British rich list - Yahoo! News: "In its 104-page supplement, the Sunday Times said the wealth of Britain's richest 1,000 people now stands at a record 300.9 billion pounds, up from 249.6 billion pounds last year -- a rise of more than 20 percent.
This represents one of the biggest year-on-year increases since the Rich List -- based on 'identifiable wealth' such as real estate, art and shareholdings, but not bank accounts -- was first published in 1989."

Pension Exposure in Europe

Seeking Alpha » Royal Philips Electronics Q1 2006 Earnings Conference Call Transcript (PHG): "OK. I’ll take them in sequence. The first one, on the U.K., it’s definitely a one-off. We were under-funded. The reason why we decided to fund the U.K. is because the regulators there are taking a vested interest in this and there are possibilities that if you are not fully funded in that part of the world, the regulator could be in the way of potentially, for instance, reorganization of a portfolio."

--Pierre-Jean Sivignon from Royal-Phillips

Seeking Alpha » Caterpillar’s Mysterious $400K Consultant (CAT)

Seeking Alpha » Caterpillar’s Mysterious $400K Consultant (CAT): "And perhaps Danielle Pflederer may want to consider investing in a basic website — you can build one for well under $100 these days — so that she can attract other Dow 30 companies to her business. It might also stem the confusion of people like me, who when they look into this sort of thing, begin to wonder why Peoria-based Caterpillar might be spending $400K on a Rochester, NY-based wedding planner."

Weddings are expensive these days... especially multi-year ones. I wonder what religion that would be?

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders

Stock Tip #5 - Always read the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow in between the lineshref="http://groups.msn.com/BerkshireHathawayShareholders/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=&ID_Message=20651">Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders: "
The Little Trick: the little trick is to compare your calculated retained earnings figure to the market cap. If the retained earnings figure is 15% or less than your market cap, then I think you had better start asking some questions. If it is less than 10% of market cap, then you really have some real questions to ask. The first question that comes to mind is: I'm putting up X dollars, you've been in business for 10 or 20 years (doing what you do), you've only made 10% of X, how in the hell are you planning to pay me back X plus interest (doing what you do)????"

So adding back all dividends into Retained Earnings shows all profits a company has made since the beginning of time. Sort of like adding your annual salary since the beginning of time, and figuring out how much you're worth based on it. Not a hugely valuable metric... P/E & Debt numbers are probably worth more.

Stanford Securities Class Action Clearinghouse - Index of Filings

Stanford Securities Class Action Clearinghouse - Index of Filings

Stock Tip #4 - A good company spends time with their products and customers, not with lawsuits against their products by their customers.

Bureau of the Public Debt : The Debt To the Penny

Bureau of the Public Debt : The Debt To the Penny: "Current Amount

04/13/2006 $8,406,142,649,741.06


Current
Month

04/12/2006 $8,402,876,241,412.25
04/11/2006 $8,406,559,401,664.39
04/10/2006 $8,402,073,299,705.08
04/07/2006 $8,398,801,893,932.15
04/06/2006 $8,393,742,553,848.46
04/05/2006 $8,388,876,683,304.95
04/04/2006 $8,388,195,236,701.49
04/03/2006 $8,377,471,102,607.82


Prior
Months

03/31/2006 $8,371,156,293,376.33
02/28/2006 $8,269,885,515,386.04
01/31/2006 $8,196,070,437,599.52
12/30/2005 $8,170,424,541,313.62
11/30/2005 $8,092,322,205,720.65
10/31/2005 $8,027,123,404,214.36


Prior Fiscal
Years

09/30/2005 $7,932,709,661,723.50
09/30/2004 $7,379,052,696,330.32
09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62
09/30/2002 $6,228,235,965,597.16
09/28/2001 $5,807,463,412,200.06
09/29/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86
09/30/1999 $5,656,270,901,615.43
09/30/1998 $5,526,193,008,897.62
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/"

Useful Excel from Dr. Mayes' Web Pages

Index to Dr. Mayes' Web Pages

I like his quote bubbles...

Stock Tip #3 - You'll make more money by selling advice than taking it is a good one.

He has some amazing links to tools like Edgarscan - the ability to dump, say, the last 15 years of data from Microsoft into a spreadsheet instantly.

http://edgarscan.pwcglobal.com/servlets/getCompanyDetail?Name=MICROSOFT+CORP - click on Excel Spreadsheet.

He even wrote a Monte Carlo simulator for Excel, and has a spreadsheet analyzing Oil Prices vs. Rigs from 83-97.

Why Bill Cara doesn't like Google

Do good, even if it means shovelling do and throwing it at the media.

Stock Tip #2 - Don't trade on B.S. Use The Bullfighter on any company releases.

Bill Cara: The BC 100 Explained, Sun., Apr. 16, 2006, 11:45 AM: "But here�s the rub: Shame on these Google guys for how they act. The founders insulted me (and maybe you) when they brought a wheelbarrow of manure to the pre-IPO marketplace when they talked about establishing the world�s largest altruistic foundation � let them do it like Bill Gates before putting it into our face � and they talk about scanning every book in every library without having the mega-trillions of dollars in reserve to pay for copyrights. I don�t respect these guys enough to put them on the Cara 100 list.
You see; I�m a trader � I don�t trade on b.s.
I�d like to see them stick to their knitting and knock off Microsoft from its perch. Then, they�d get my respect! In the back of my mind, however is the knowledge that one proprietary technology can carry you only so far in this day and age. "

Bill Cara: The BC 100 Explained, Sun., Apr. 16, 2006, 11:45 AM

I'm going to try something new for a little while and summarize items by a stock tip.

Here's Stock Tip #1 from Bill Cara: Check out companies with head office in the Bahamas, since they skirt some of Canada's (& US) taxes. I don't agree with companies that do this, but it does make sense from a bottom-line perspective. Who has the advantage, someone who pays 0% or 37% to taxes?

Bill Cara: The BC 100 Explained, Sun., Apr. 16, 2006, 11:45 AM: "In the next week or two, I intend to write a little more about my biases. A couple pop out at you right out, including ATI from Canada, but then you know I'm Canadian eh? How about Teekay LNG Partners L.P.? I chose that one because I like the tax benefits of Bahamas, and I like TK management. Their other, larger, transport shipping venture (NYSE: TK) has more competition though, and LNG is just coming into vogue. "

A New Tool for Investors Interested in Energy - United States Oil Fund, LP

A New Tool for Investors Interested in Energy - United States Oil Fund, LP

One of the risks for this fund is that USOF and its general partner may have conflicts of interest, which may permit them to favor their own interests to your detriment.

Hey, honesty pays off.

Can't tell what all the pricing babble is, but I think the MER is around 0.5% with a .35% brokerage fee.

Looks like an interesting way to trade oil futures.

Getting a fund like this off the ground doesn't seem cheap - since June 2005 they've spent over $11M on salaries and wages - on an initial investment of $400M.

Our sole General Partner is Victoria Bay Asset Management, LLC (formerly Standard Asset Management, LLC), a single member limited liability company that was formed in the state of Delaware

One of the auditors is none other than Malcolm R Fobes III of Berkshire Hatha... I mean Forbes... I mean Berkshire Focus.

The CEO of VBAM looks to have started specifically to launch this fund on May 10, 2005.

Another interesting director.

Peter M. Robinson has been an Independent Director of the General Partner since September 30, 2005. Mr. Robinson has been employed with the Hoover Institution since 1993. Mr. Robinson graduated from Dartmouth College in 1979 and Oxford University in 1982. Mr. Robinson spent six years in the White House, serving from 1982 to 1983 as chief speechwriter to Vice President George Bush and from 1983 to 1988 as special assistant and speechwriter to President Ronald Reagan. After the White House, Mr. Robinson received an MBA from the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. Mr. Robinson then spent a year in New York City with Fox Television. He spent a second year in Washington, D.C., with the Securities and Exchange Commission, where he served as the director of the Office of Public Affairs, Policy Evaluation, and Research. Mr. Robinson has also written three books and has been published in the New York Times, Red Herring, and Forbes ASAP and he is the editor of Can Congress Be Fixed?: Five Essays on Congressional Reform (Hoover Institution Press, 1995). Mr. Robinson is 48 years old.

Interesting high-profile fund offering....

Good investment or Nigerian?

You can now email me at: davidsimp2006@yahoo.com

FROM: Sgt. David Simpson,

Contact me via my private email: davsimp2006@yahoo.com



To whom it may concern.



I am an American soldier, I am serving in the military of the 1st

Armored Division in Iraq, as you know we are being attacked by

insurgents everyday and car bombs.



We managed to move funds belonging to Saddam Hussein's family. The

total amount is US$7.2Million dollars in cash, mostly 100 dollar bills.

We want to move this money to you, so that you may invest it for us and

keep our share for banking.We will take 60%, my partner and I.



You take the other 40%. No strings attached, just help us move it out of Iraq,

Iraq is a war zone. We plan on using diplomatic courier and shipping

the money out in one large silver box, using diplomatic immunity.



If you are interested I will send you the full details, my job is to find a

good partner that we can trust and that will assist us. Can I trust you?

When you receive this letter, kindly send me an e-mail signifying your

interest including your most confidential telephone/fax numbers for

quick communication also your contact details. This business is risk free.


The box can be shipped out in 48hrs.


Respectfully,



Sgt. David Simpson

Private email: davsimp2006@yahoo.com



- David Simpson

Aggressive Income Fund

Aggressive Conservative Income Portfolio

* 25% Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY)
* 25% Powershares International Dividend Achievers (PID)
* 15% MCSI US Equity REIT index (VNQ)
* 5% KKR Financial Corp (KFN)
* 5% Allied Capital (ALD)
* 25% Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG)

Canadian Capitalist » New Dividend ETF

<
The cool thing about these ETFs is that they provide a quick screen for a list of companies that have increased their dividends. If you use their current holdings as a starting point for research into dividend paying companies a good part of the research has been done for you. Or you could just invest in the ETFs. ;)
2. Canadian Capitalist Says:
March 14th, 2006 at 11:17 am

Great point. I refer to the S&P Dividend Aristocrats and the Mergent Dividend Achievers indices every time I am considering an investment.



The comments regarding a new FDL dividend-yielding ETF may make more sense than the actual FDL ETF. If you look at the split - Financials (41.99%), Utilities (18.41%) and Telecommunications (16.67%) - it's heavily weighted in industries that could be affected by the upcoming drought in mortgage lending, cheap VOIP, and higher-costs for fuel. It may be better to pick 2-5 of your favourites out of these indexes...

Canadian Capitalist » New Dividend ETF

<a href="http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2006/03/13/new-dividend-etf">Canadian Capitalist » New Dividend ETF: " 1. 0xcc Says:
March 14th, 2006 at 6:30 am

The cool thing about these ETFs is that they provide a quick screen for a list of companies that have increased their dividends. If you use their current holdings as a starting point for research into dividend paying companies a good part of the research has been done for you. Or you could just invest in the ETFs. ;)
2. Canadian Capitalist Says:
March 14th, 2006 at 11:17 am

Great point. I refer to the S&P Dividend Aristocrats and the Mergent Dividend Achievers indices every time I am considering an investment.



The comments regarding a new FDL dividend-yielding ETF may make more sense than the actual FDL ETF. If you look at the split - Financials (41.99%), Utilities (18.41%) and Telecommunications (16.67%) - it's heavily weighted in industries that could be affected by the upcoming drought in mortgage lending, cheap VOIP, and higher-costs for fuel. It may be better to pick 2-5 of your favourites out of these indexes...

Bill Cara Knows what 2014 looks like

But, while there is some strength in the bonds, the traditional capital intensive and commodity price sensitive groups are today’s leaders on the U.S. equity market board (e.g., mining, construction, gold & silver, oil well services and equipment, and crops), and the economy-sensitive groups are mostly losers (e.g., paper products, med equipment, jewelry, fabricated plastic and rubber, advertising, restaurants, containers & packaging, business services, and tires).

Hmm, where have I seen that list of loser groups before? Is 2014 coming sooner than we think?

A Growth Market - Dubai

Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14

Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14: "Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14
Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14(1)
(Numbers in thousands)

Employment Change
Industry 2004 2014 Number Percent

Employment services 3,470.3 5,050.2 1,579.9 45.5
Local government educational services 7,762.5 8,545.5 783.0 10.1
Local government, excluding education and hospitals 5,485.6 6,249.3 763.7 13.9
Offices of physicians 2,053.9 2,813.4 759.5 37.0
Full-service restaurants 4,226.4 4,927.8 701.4 16.6
General medical and surgical hospitals, private 4,050.9 4,699.0 648.1 16.0
Limited-service eating places 3,726.7 4,318.6 591.9 15.9
Home health care services 773.2 1,310.3 537.1 69.5
Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private 1,377.5 1,849.8 472.3 34.3
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 779.0 1,250.2 471.2 60.5"

Sorry for the poor table layout, but I thought it was funny that Employment services would be the top growing industry with the largest salaries and wages in 2014.

That sounds like who makes the most money when buying and selling stocks - the moneychangers.

Next on our list, education and learning. Well, salaries for teachers have room to grow.

Doctors - hmm.. lotsa old people in 2014.

Full-service restaurants.. lotsa old rich people in 2014.

Hospitals... ""

Limited-service eating places... lotsa old unrich people...

Home health care services.. Pattern here???

Colleges, universities.... 2nd baby boom?

Management, scientific, and technical consulting. Now that's disappointing...

How about the decliners?

Employment Change
Industry 2004 2014 Number Percent

Wired telecommunications carriers 548.4 380.1 -168.3 -30.7
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing 219.9 80.0 -139.9 -63.6
Printing and related support activities 665.0 600.1 -64.9 -9.8
Fabric mills 115.7 60.0 -55.7 -48.1
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing 452.8 399.9 -52.9 -11.7
Crop production, primary job 530.2 482.1 -48.1 -9.1
Basic chemical manufacturing 156.1 110.0 -46.1 -29.5
Rubber product manufacturing 173.0 132.8 -40.2 -23.2
Foundries 165.4 127.8 -37.6 -22.7
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing 212.1 175.0 -37.1 -17.5

Let's see... Telecom? How about free wireless internet for everyone and let's see how long that one lasts.

Cut & sew - see China & India

Printing and related - see eBooks & Internet

Fabric mills - see China & related.
Semiconductor - ? Not sure why this would decrease. Maybe organic LEDs that can be grown instead of created?

Crop production, primary job - farmers are not going to be doing much farming unless they're in front of a machine.

Chemical ... (see paper & fabric)
Rubber... (autos)
Foundries... (?)
Computer and peripheral. I guess old people won't be using computers that much.

Now the fastest growing occupations into 2014

Employment Change
Occupation Most significant source of post-
2004 2014 Number Percent secondary education or training(1)

Home health aides 624 974 350 56 Short-term on-the-job training
Network systems and data communications analysts 231 357 126 55 Bachelor's degree
Medical assistants 387 589 202 52 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Physician assistants 62 93 31 50 Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, applications 460 682 222 48 Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist assistants 59 85 26 44 Associate degree
Dental hygienists 158 226 68 43 Associate degree
Computer software engineers, systems software 340 486 146 43 Bachelor's degree
Dental assistants 267 382 114 43 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Personal and home care aides 701 988 287 41 Short-term on-the-job training

Home health.. old people.. pattern here!
Network systems and data comm analysts. Everything in 2014 will be about networking computers and the power of the clustered environment.
Medical, Physician... Physical therapist, dental hygenist, dental assistant, personal home care aids...you get the idea.

Two of my top inventions for 2014 will be the Magnifying Glass that has a built in MP3 player (I will call it iGlass) so you can read your old books and listen to audiobooks at the same time, and the I Lost My Dentures GPS system, for those bad memory days.

Seriously though, demographics play an amazing role in the markets, and in your life.



Change Percent Annual growth
Level Number Percent distribution rate (percent)

Group 1994 2004 1994 2004 1994 2004
1994 2004 2014 to to to to 1994 2004 2014 to to
2004 2014 2004 2014 2004 2014
Total, 16 years
and older 142,534 144,863 162,269 14,429 17,406 11.3 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.1
16 to 24 21,612 22,268 22,158 656 -110 3.0 -0.5 16.5 15.1 13.7 0.3 0.0
25 to 54 93,898 102,122 105,627 8,224 3,505 8.8 3.4 71.6 69.3 65.2 0.8 0.3
55 and older 15,546 23,011 34,315 7,465 11,304 48.0 49.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 4.0 4.1

Men 70,817 78,980 86,194 8,163 7,214 11.5 9.1 54.0 53.6 53.2 1.1 0.9
Women 60,239 68,421 75,906 8,182 7,485 13.6 10.9 46.0 46.4 46.8 1.3 1.0

White 111,082 121,086 129,936 10,004 8,850 9.0 7.3 84.8 82.1 80.2 0.9 0.7
Black 14,502 16,638 19,433 2,136 2,795 14.7 16.8 11.1 11.3 12.0 1.4 1.6
Asian(1) 5,472 6,271 8,304 799 2,033 14.6 32.4 4.2 4.3 5.1 1.4 2.8
All other groups(2) (3) 3,406 4,427 (3) 1,021 (3) 30.0 (3) 2.3 2.7 (3) 2.7

Hispanic origin 11,975 19,272 25,760 7,297 6,488 60.9 33.7 9.1 13.1 15.9 4.9 2.9
Other than Hispanic origin 119,081 128,129 136,340 9,048 8,211 7.6 6.4 90.9 86.9 84.1 0.7 0.6
White Non-Hispanic 100,462 103,202 106,373 2,740 3,171 2.7 3.1 76.7 70.0 65.6 0.3 0.3

That chart was even worse... but the details are that 55 and older will grow by 4%, with women leading the pack, since women are known to live longer than men.

The Hispanic community will be growing by a staggering 4.9% over 0.9% White, but I don't think that is organic growth. I think the growth is due to the immigration rules that, as the Freakonomic Steven Levitt would say, will 'reveal' those people. Like his story about how 7 million children in the US 'disappeared' one fateful year in 1987.

Next up.. what stocks I think make good sense in 2014, or why the heck didn't I buy Extendicare back in 2001???

The other Hank Scorpio

"This elite corps of managers examines potential deals, performs due diligence on loans that Cerberus makes, and sits on Cerberus company boards. Feinberg also expects his CEOs to bring him ideas for deals. Their incentive: a chance to run a company and get a chunk of equity. 'With their operating experience, they help us identify both opportunities and problems we might not see,' says Cerberus Chief Operating Officer Mark A. Neporent."

Sounds to me like they want to ... take over the world.

Forget about buying expensive cars, just buy your own car maker.

Why Insurance Float is like Gift Card Breakage

Seeking Alpha » The Bull Case For Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA): "That underwriting profit meant that in 2005, again, Berkshire Hathaway didn’t pay a cent to use the capital that makes up its float. And since Berkshire Hathaway’s float amounts to some $49 billion dollars, that’s a huge cost advantage in the investment business. While banks have to pay interest to depositors, and hedge funds have to share profits with their investors, Berkshire Hathaway can invest a no-cost $49 billion."

Gift Cards are Weapons of Mass Destruction

Warren Buffett wouldn't buy a gift card for anyone:

"But buried in the K that Home Depot filed late yesterday was the fact that for the full year, the number for gift card breakage was actually $52 million. Though the company warns repeatedly throughout the K that the $52 million is essentially a one-time bonus because it is accounting for unspent gift cards since the program was launched back in the late 1990s, it does leave one wondering how much this will contribute to Home Depot going forward not to mention what the impact will be on dozens of other retailers. After all, those gift cards are ubiquitous and they’re very hard to pass up when you’re desperately looking for something — anything — to buy for your brother-in-law."

Gift cards are nothing more than derivatives or the option to buy something at a certain price. If you give someone a gift card for $100 at Best Buy, for example, and they use it 11 months later, Best Buy has just made money off of the money you loaned them + the cost of the goods your buying has gone down + inflation went up + you always seem to have to add a little cash to your purchase.

And with gift cards getting redeemed just a little bit more than mail-in rebates, some creative accounting can be used to move the numbers around.

If you're going to give a gift card, why not just give something that's returnable?

Blog Maverick - www.blogmaverick.com _

Blog Maverick - www.blogmaverick.com _: "Now lets look at the perspective of the corporate insider, in particular the CEO.
There are two types of CEOs, those who are the founders or co-founders of their companies, and those who were hired to do the job. The difference is important because those involved with the founding of their companies not only have a different personal connection with the company and its employees, but more importantly, since they founded the company, they most likely already own a lot of stock. The motivation of a founding CEO will be money, but there will be other considerations. Sometimes.
Then there are those hired to be CEOs. What are the goals of hired CEOs ?. Plain and simple, its to get paid. To make as big a chunk of money as they possibly can in the shortest amount of time. No one in their right mind is going to take on a job with the amount of pressure, stress and away from family time that comes with being the CEO of a public company without getting paid incredible sums of money.
There is an interesting kinship between hired CEOs and professional athletes. Both realize that there are limited opportunities to make the big financial score, and if they dont make it this time through, they may never get the opportunity again."

Blog Maverick - www.blogmaverick.com _

Blog Maverick - www.blogmaverick.com _: "Here we have the CEOs of two companies saying that one small research compay out of Arizona can have more influence on the actions of current and potential shareholders than not only every other research company combined, including those who have been following the company for an extended period of time, but also more influence than the CEOs themselves. Of course these CEOs must also believe that what is reported by this company is more important than the results of operations of the company.
Is a single research pen mightier than the P&L, Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash Flows ? that is the question you must ask yourself.
If you think the answer is yes, and you are an investor, you probably dont know enough about the companies you own stock in to stay in the market.
If you think the answer is yes, and you are a trader, hopefully you have gotten to the point of knowing you are just winging it anyway, and you win some and lose some.
If you are the CEO of a public company and you think the answer is yes. Please email me with the stock symbol of your company. I want to short it.
Any good CEO knows:
Sticks and Stones my hit my stock price, but a great operating company will make the shorts cover and push the stock price higher.
Any bad CEO knows:
If i can create a diversion, I know I can convince at least a few funds to hold on, and that gives me a chance to sell more stock.
If none of this makes sense, make sure none of your money is in the market"

The Color Of Money

When currency starts gaining colour, I get worried. Colourful currencies to me usually mean that the country producing the currency is somewhere in a tropical area, where the rich/poor line is tightly drawn, and the rich keep their money in other currencies. In countries like these, the American greenback has always been their favourite, since it signifies power - the power to buy stuff that their currency doesn't provide. Tourists bringing greenbacks always have friends in these countries.

Canada just released a pink ribbon coin to commemorate the fight against Breast Cancer. I think this is a great cause, and coloured coins are relatively new and different than colourful paper, since it is a technology relatively few governments have right now. However, when a country starts printing colourful money is inflation is around the corner? How about stamping colourful coins? Is this the same thing?

I think of my trip to Brazil a few years ago, and looking at the see-through window in the Real. When a currency has a viewfinder in it, you know they are trying to make it something worth collecting (or something hard to counterfeit). Back then I would stick with paying $0.80 worth of Canadian coins for a beer. I wonder how much it is now...

Perhaps my favourite financial blogger right now, Bill Cara, can tell us - he'll be setting up in warmer climates shortly.

Getting windy in here? PBW.

ETF Investor » Sector Week-in-Review: Momentum in Semis, Telecom While Real Estate Lags (ETFs: PSI, PTE, IYR)

Salary Disclosure 2006 (Disclosure for 2005) : Hydro One et Ontario Power Generation

Salary Disclosure 2006 (Disclosure for 2005) : Hydro One et Ontario Power Generation

The CEO made 1.5 Million.

Find more salaries over 100K for Canadian Government employees, and see what public sector jobs pay the best.

Oil-ETF launch set for Monday, pending SEC approval - MarketWatch

Oil-ETF launch set for Monday, pending SEC approval - MarketWatch: "The ETF, called United States Oil Fund LP, is set to launch on Monday and trade under the symbol 'USO.' It will be managed by commodity-pool operator Victoria Bay Asset Management LLC, according to a bell-ringing ceremony invitation sent to journalists by the Amex. "

Bill Cara: A world without GM?, Mon., Mar. 27, 2006, 9:59 AM

Tobin’s Q valuation ratio, for example, is at 0.03. That means that the GM stock valuation (about $12 billion) is just about 3 pct of what it would cost to replace the existing assets. If the Tobin’s Q ratio is less than 1.0, there is an implication that the stock is undervalued.

But that’s based on a going concern, which in the case of GM is debatable. We all know GM is in financial trouble.

The best predictor of insolvency or even bankruptcy is an financial measurement called the Altman’s Financial Structure Z-Score Ratio. If the Z-Score is equal to or better than 3.0, then the Company is likely to be financially sound. Below 1.81, it’s in trouble or headed that way. GM’s financial trouble is confirmed by its present Z-Score of 1.08.

Altman's Z-Score and Tobin's Q-Ratio can be found at the ADVFN Financials service for all U.S. listed industrial companies. I refer to them often.

Credit investors ponder GM-sized hole in universe - Yahoo! News

Credit investors ponder GM-sized hole in universe - Yahoo! News: "Should a strike be called, GM could be bankrupt by June, Boulanger said. After that any scenario might play out, but the status of GMAC will be crucial."

Transparency Becomes Opaquicy - Where's the Truthiness?

Bob's Gold Price Column: "Why don�t they want to be transparent with the most important statistic, the very measure of why they were established by a minority of Congress during a late night session back in 1913? Because they cannot wait to pump money to high heaven like some sort of fiat tower of Babel.

M-3 was increased by $28.3 billion last week, a 14.2 percent annualized rate of growth. Over the past 2 weeks, M-3 was boosted an amazing $81.9 billion, for an annualized rate of growth of 20.7 percent! Over the past 8 weeks, M-3 is up 129.6 billion, an 8.2 percent rate of growth, and is up a whopping $249.7 billion over the past 12 weeks, a 10.7 percent annualized rate of growth, a $1.0 trillion annual expansion.'"

Big Mike's Bearish on GLD

Big Mike's Contrarian Investing Blog: Gold coins: bad investment: "Even the gold ETF is a bad investment in my opinion. It's just not leveraged enough. If the price of gold goes up by 50% from here, that's really not such a great return on investment. I like to buy things that will at least double. That's why I own shares of DRD Gold (NasdaqSC: DROOY), a gold mining company. DRD Gold is highly leveraged to the price of gold and will increase in value many times if gold ever takes off."

GM vs. Ferrari - Surprised?

So I was reading an article about the best known luxury brands in China, and here's what I found.

Christie's was voted the best auctioneer,

Very low P/E @ 6.55, so-so div @ 2.28, low margin @ 7.45

Vacheron Constantin the best watch, (private, and the world's oldest Manufacture - a watch ETF would be interesting, it could convert watches into a currency)

Davidoff the best cigar, (Imperial Tobacco)

Giorgio Armani the best designer, (private?)
Hennessy, Chivas Regal, and Dom Perignon the best liquors, (private?)
Princess the best yacht, and (SCAS group - China distributor, private?)
Ferrari the best sports car.

I was in China last year and visited the markets in Beijing. The only things I didn't see counterfeit were Ferraris and Princess yachts, and that was probably because the tourists couldn't fit them in their luggage. Mont Blanc, Columbia, North Face, Gap, and fake Gucci and Samsonite luggage to haul it all away. It was a never-ending onslaught of fake goods. Apparently over 95% of the antiques in China are fake too, even though they would still have the largest collection of antiquities in the world.

But back to the stock - Ferrari looks like an interesting play, though it probably won't get as much attention in a bear market. Come to think of it, unless China's boom keeps on booming, most of these product sales should stay relatively flat, I would think.

GM seems to be coming back? What about all those big pension and health care costs?

Most popular message boards on Yahoo

Yahoo!

Can we track the popularity of a stock by the # of posts? Interestingly CISCO is miles ahead of the competition in terms of # of posts (4M vs 2M for Sirius radio)

AMD, MSFT and AMZN come 3rd - 5th.

Apple, Cisco, Microsoft & XM Radio have the top posts of the day. When it comes to message board, techies seem to like to talk about tech I guess.

Let's see if I can dig up a sentiment indicator somewhere...

TC's blog » Yahoo stock to RSS converter

TC's blog » Yahoo stock to RSS converter

Precious Metals Charts. Gold, Silver, And Platinum Charts $US And Different Currencies

Precious Metals Charts. Gold, Silver, And Platinum Charts $US And Different Currencies

Seeking Alpha » Top Ten Industry Groups Year To Date

Seeking Alpha » Top Ten Industry Groups Year To Date: "Top Ten Industry Groups Year To Date

Eddy Elfenbein submits:

Steel……………………………………………….38.95%
Precious Metals……………………………….30.77%
Commercial Vehicles………………………..24.28%
Telecommunications…………………………17.12%
Heavy Construction…………………………..16.44%
Fixed-Line Telecommunications…………15.92%
Building Materials…………………………….15.28%
Industrial Supplies…………………………..14.78%
Gambling…………………………………………14.76%
Defense…………………………………………..14.56%"

Realtime WIkipedia and Tim Horton's IPO

Tim Hortons - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "Tim Hortons [1] is the largest coffee and doughnut chain in Canada holding approx. 75% of the coffee market. It is well-known for its coffee, doughnuts, Timbits, bagels, soups, and sandwiches. Some Canadians consider the chain a significant part of their national identity and culture.
Tim Hortons entered the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) on March 23, 2006 with an IPO of $27 per share, raising over $700 million in the first day of trading."

Fear and Greed in Coffee - Tims sold at $27 a share

globeandmail.com : Tims sold at $27 a share: "The bankers priced the IPO last night at the top end of a previously disclosed range of between $25 and $27 a share. That range was itself increased earlier this week from between $21 and $23."

Industry observers had expected the bulk of the offering would be handed to institutions, but the small amount set aside for regular investors — the people who line up for one of Tim Hortons' signature double-doubles each day — managed to surprise even some bankers working on the deal.

Something tells me this stock will be a GOOG Buy, I mean Good Buy.

"We had institutions saying to us, four months ago, that they would take as much of Tim Hortons as they could get. They hadn't even seen a prospectus, and they wanted it," marvelled a senior executive at one of the dealers.

Of course, this is coming from some sell-side PR agent that doesn't even know how to spell Jim Cramer's real name.

Noted U.S. financial pundits, like CNBC's Jim Kramer, have weighed in on the doughnut maker, counselling investors not to hold on to the stock too long because Tim Hortons lacks a solid platform for growth.

Boo-Ya. Flip a coin Jim.

How much is 411canada.com and 411canada.ca worth?

CNW Group: " REDCITY SEARCH COMPANY INC. ('RDC')
BULLETIN TYPE: Property-Asset Acquisition
BULLETIN DATE: March 22, 2006
TSX Venture Tier 2 Company

TSX Venture Exchange (the 'Exchange') has accepted for filing
documentation pertaining to an Asset Purchase Agreement, dated March 10, 2006,
between RedCity Search Company Inc. (the 'Company'), and Great Exposure Inc.
(the 'Vendor'), whereby the Company has agreed to purchase the domain
properties '411Canada.com' and '411Canada.ca'
The $100,000 aggregate purchase price will be satisfied by a cash payment
of $10,000, a $20,000 unsecured non-interest bearing promissory note maturing
on June 30, 2006, and the issuance of 280,000 common shares of the Company.
A finder's fee of $10,000 is payable to Michael Katz of Toronto, ON.
For further details, please refer to the Company's news release dated
February 10, 2006."

Philip Fisher - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Philip Fisher - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "Fisher suggested using 15 questions to evaluate a company:

1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?
2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?
3. How effective are the company's research and development efforts in relation to its size?
4. Does the company have an above-average sales organization?
5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?
6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?
7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?
8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations?
9. Does the company have depth to its management?
10. How good are the company's cost analysis and accounting controls?
11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?
12. Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regard to profits?
13. In the foreseeable"

Old Money

The Investing Philosophy of Philip A. Fisher: Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by James K. Glassman -- Capitalism Magazine: "Philip Carret was born in 1896, the year the Dow Jones industrial average was launched. He died almost six years ago at 101."

Street Stories Guide - John Neff

Street Stories Guide - John Neff: "Trading/ Valuation Techniques Employed

* Only buys when a stock is too cheap and acting badly at that moment in the market. Infallibly sells when it is too expensive and acting strongly in the market.
* Tolerates portfolio concentration in industry groups.
* Average holding is 1/3 lower than market P/E, and with dividend yield 2% higher.
* ( Growth Rate + Dividend Yield ) / PER = 'What you get for what you pay'"

The Small Cap Stock Blog » What Explains the Heavy Trading of OTC Bulletin Board Stocks in 2006?

The Small Cap Stock Blog » What Explains the Heavy Trading of OTC Bulletin Board Stocks in 2006?



Wow! Not much else to say there.

Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

Futures Industry Association | FI Magazine Home: "Futures and options on broadly defined underlying commodities or indexes cannot help but dominate futures or options on individual securities. Among the top 20 we find the Kospi 200 options hanging out in a world of their own. At 2.5 billion traded, it sounds a lot like McDonald's in an earlier age. Volume reached a high of 2.8 billion in 2003 and fell 11% in 2004. The downward trend appears to have ended in 2005 with a .54% uptick. "

Google Finance: Bandag, Incorporated

Google Finance: Bandag, Incorporated

Apparently Google is including blog postings on it's finance summary page - and mine is there for Bandag Tires.

Kenneth Lay to be found guilty of AT LEAST 4 of the charges brought against him

TradeSports Trading & Betting Exchange, part of Trade Exchange Network.

Central Park NY to have ON or OVER 5 inches of snowfall by 31 Mar?

President Bush to sign a bill permitting oil drilling in ANWR on/before 31 Mar06?

Kofi Annan to announce his resignation ON/BEFORE 30JUN06?

Donald Rumsfeld to announce his resignation on/before 30June2006?

Dick Cheney to announce his resignation on/before 30June2006?

USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30June06?

Bird flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA ON/BEFORE 31st March 2006?

US law passed by 30JUN06 allowing taxpayers to divert SS taxes to managed private accounts?

These are some of the things you can bid on at Tradesports.com - and what are on the minds of traders today.

Ford + GM = Canada + US

Financial Mathematics: Seminar

Check out the Credit Markets in 2005 Presentation. Ford & GM comprises around 1/3 of the bond market.

Also a good primer on Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - insurance if (when) the creditor defaults, the creditholder gets 40% on the dollar.

As you go down the indices (CDX1 - CDX5) you get into more risky trading. When CDX6-10 show up, my guess is that we are in deep trouble.

But wait.. instead of doing this they created X05 "to contain toxic fallen angels like FMCC and GMAC"

Wow. In order to trade these now, the creditor needs to front some cash for compensation in protection schemes.

One of the blames, notes the presenter, is Bush's failure to bailout the sector.

Bankruptcy and Chapter 11 are mentioned, with notes that C11 allows for nullification of union contracts, the ability to cut healthcare & pensions, and shut down factories.

The liquidity cycle: Asian countries peg their currencies and buy Treasuries _> US can maintain low interest rates -> US consumers borrow to buy cheap
made-in-China (or generally Asian) imports -> Asian economies grow -> Asian governments keep currency pegs -> Asian countries buy more Treasuries…

When those arrows reverse & buy turns to sell.. what happens?

People are buying wheat?

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange -: "Wednesday, February 01, 2006 - Winnipeg - Trade in futures and options contracts on Winnipeg Commodity Exchange Inc. ('WCE') on January 31, 2006 posted an all-time daily volume record with 33,381 contracts traded."

Learn Thai (THI) and Trade big wins

"The Toronto Stock Exchange has conditionally approved the listing of the common stock under the symbol 'THI.' Tim Hortons has applied to list the common stock under the same symbol on the New York Stock Exchange."

Thai, eh? I'm in!

Here's a list of stocks on Canada's newest market, the CNQ.

Rock? BEER? POKR, WOLF, HAWK, GOLD, SAGE, FORT, IQIT. Seems to be a lot of chest-thumping guy stocks on there. (Well, maybe not BIRD.U, or SMRT, or PERL.) I like OMGM - Oh my gawd Mineral. And XPEL.U. Sounds like a university for the underachiever.

Maybe the S&P 500 List has some more interesting names. YUM? RIG? BUD? XOM?

Hmm..

CNQ has a better chance of capturing the MTV generation...

Going short?

PRXL: Summary for PAREXEL INTL CP - Yahoo! Finance: "Parexel International Corp. (PRXL)"

Skynet is taking over...

The US Market Blog » Fed Liquidity Injections, Program Trading Behind Goldman’s Blowout Earnings (GS): "Nearly 60% of trading on the NYSE consists of program trading as opposed to 20% in 2000."

Your Money - Fed Reserve responsible for massive private-sector profits

The US Market Blog » Fed Liquidity Injections, Program Trading Behind Goldman’s Blowout Earnings (GS): "Remember Goldman Sachs is a primary dealer and benefits greatly from strategic liquidity injections from the Fed. What they do with those monies is to trade like hell."

The Gold Stock Blog » Trailing 12 Month P/E for Gold Companies

The Gold Stock Blog » Trailing 12 Month P/E for Gold Companies: "Trailing 12 Month P/E for Gold Companies"

CEF - Overbought but still a buy?

The Gold Stock Blog » Central Fund Canada Poised to Grow (CEF): "CEF (Central Fund Canada) has both a holding in silver and gold bullion so adding it to our gold holdings gives us an unleveraged addition of gold with silver."

iUnits - Step back from that man behind the curtain!

ETF Investor » Barclays Deceitful About iShares ETF P/E Ratios: "Barclays calculates the PE ratios of its ETFs by excluding companies that are not profitable.

The result is that they claim that their Russell 2000 ETF has a P/E ratio of 19.1. If negative profits are included, however, the PE ratios of the Russell 2000 is 41."

Earth, Wind & Fire... and Water

ETF Investor » Investing in Water? A Deeper Look into the PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO): "Comment by Market Participant
2006-03-16 17:12:32

PHO is one of my core portfolio holdings (PHO, PID, and SDY), I think the macroeconomic arguments for investing in water are enourmous. As well because water service is a capital goods/natural resource industry it is fairly resisitant to inflation.

That said, the water secor as a whole has or will soon become somewhat “frothy”, witness PHO’s massive growth in market cap over the past few months. This is certainly the case for PBW (Clean energy ETF). However I think the macro element remains very compelling even if these funds don’t meet a strict value critera.

If I were to create a macro natural resources/Energy services portfolio I think I would go for a blend of IGE, PHO, PBW and XLU @ 25% each. This portfolio would have good expsure to macro-growth (IGE, PHO, PBW) and decent dividends (IGE,XLU).

PHO/PBW are also a good way to add small cap exposure to a portfolio, but beware that most of their stocks are classified as small cap growth."

Gold and Irrational Exuberance

Definition of Irrational Exuberance: "The term irrational exuberance became Greenspan's most famous quote, out of all the millions of words he has uttered publicly. The term 'irrational exuberance' is often used to describe a heightened state of speculative fervor. It is less strong than other colorful terms such as 'speculative mania' or 'speculative orgy' which discredit themselves as overstating the case. I chose this phrase as the title for my book because many people know instantly from this title what this book is about."

Get to know Irrational Exuberance, 'cause it's back!

Stock market picks � Garzarelli.com: "Here you can examine the system pioneered by stock market quantitative analyst Elaine Garzarelli. Using her sector analysis Recent Press:
Fearless Forecasters
Equity Strategists: Garzarelli Predicts 25% Gain in S&P 500
�additional articles �

methodology, she predicted the stock market crash of 1987, the upturn that followed, the 1990 bear market, and the bear market bottom in September 1990. She also predicted the 2000 bear market in May 2000. She warned of stock market overvaluation months before Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' speech in 1996. Her newsletter is now available online.
More about Elaine Garzarelli "

CNQ - Canadian Trading & Quotation System Inc.

Canada has a new stock exchange, Canada's New Stock Exchange. CNQ.

Which currencies are managed by the Fed?

FRB: FOMC Minutes--January 31, 2006: "To purchase and sell the following foreign currencies in the form of cable transfers through spot or forward transactions on the open market at home and abroad, including transactions with the U.S. Treasury, with the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund established by Section 10 of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, with foreign monetary authorities, with the Bank for International Settlements, and with other international financial institutions:
Canadian dollars
Danish kroner
Euro
Pounds sterling
Japanese yen
Mexican pesos
Norwegian kroner
Swedish kronor
Swiss francs"

PPT isn't just a Powerpoint document - it's a license to print money

The Fed prints up billions of dollars and slips them into an offshore bank account for say XYZ Investment Corp (which is established as a front for the PPT). JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are then designated as the brokers for XYZ Corp to act as the funnels to bring the "new money" into the economy via the PPT's "market stabilization activities." Thus, there are unlimited funds for use to short gold, buy dollars, and buy S&P futures whenever the markets look to be in jeopardy. Whenever the offshore account runs low, the Fed merely prints up more money for a PPT operative to deposit into the account.

Printing money to keep afloat

A Zimbabwean Businessman, His Firms Seized, Takes On Mugabe: "'For a long time we have been expecting the Zimbabwean economy to implode,' said Todd Moss , a research fellow at the Washington-based Center for Global Development. 'It has been a mystery to us how the ruling party has been coming up with money to pay off some of its debts. The point is that it finances itself through a series of front companies. In the last 10 years the economy has gone backwards, so that the average income is what it was in 1953,' he said."

Mawere claims President Robert Mugabe has been printing money to keep his government afloat and that the money seized from Mawere's and other businesses is part of the money being paid to the IMF, which is supposed to be a champion of private property rights. Mugabe, 82, announced in 2004 that his government would demand half the shares in all the country's privately owned mines. "We cannot recognize absolute ownership of our resources. No!" he was quoted as saying.

Barely feed your family on $9 million a month?

Inflation in Zimbabwe Soars to 782 Pct. - Yahoo! News: "In a broadcast Saturday, state radio said prices rose 27.5 percent during the month of February alone, with an average family of five needing Zimbabwean $9 million, or $90 at the official exchange rate, just to meet basic food needs."

BOJ ends unique super-loose monetary policy: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

BOJ ends unique super-loose monetary policy: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance: "Japan's central bank scrapped its super-loose monetary policy on Thursday but -- reflecting concerns about fallout for world markets and the domestic economy -- said it will keep short-term interest rates around zero for now."

Silver ETF approval speculation nears fever pitch - MarketWatch

Silver ETF approval speculation nears fever pitch - MarketWatch: "'I believe the proposed silver ETF can be the biggest thing for silver since the Hunt brothers,' said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, referring to the duo that tried to corner the silver market and pushed silver to $50 an ounce around 1980. "

When I was your age... inflation calculator

This article has some good benchmarks on what the price of gold is.

Use the link to the Bank Of Canada's Inflation Calculator, we can get the present value of gold if it was purchased in a given year and only matched inflation.

If you bought gold in:

1933 @ 20.67 it would be worth $309.57 today.
1947 @ 35.00 would be worth $392. (That's up over 1000%, not as much as if you bought Gold Corp last year.)
1971 @ $41.17 would be worth $218.22.

Doing some backtesting, gold in 1933 would be worth $58.40 in 1971. Gold in 1947 would be $73.96 in 1971.
By my rough math, looking at $15-$20 increases over 20-40 years, we should be around... $100 today. Yes I'm just making that up. But why did I buy GLD at a high a few days ago anyway?

My theory as to why gold is going down over the last couple of days is because the gold bugs are all in Toronto at ...



Maybe when they get back to work, things will resume being bully.

Rather than investing in gold, maybe it makes more sense to invest in a gold-related job. There are 204 job postings at PDAC jobs, most of them in Ontario.

Well I been workin’ in a coal mine
Goin’ down down
Workin’ in a coal mine
Whew about to slip down
Five o’clock in the mornin’
I’m up before the sun
When my work day is over
I’m too tired for havin’ fun
Lord I am so tired
How long can this go on
I been workin’ goin’ workin’
Whew about to slip down

I recently received this email (to my surprise, since I'm not signed up with JobShark) that offered an amazing opportunity.

ACCENTURE CONSULTING LTD, pursuant to the service contract with
Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCO) in their
Bonga Field Development Project (BFDP), intends to Invite experienced
and reputable persons having prime experience and capable of providing
IT technical support services (as individuals or in a team).

Now Nigeria and email in the same sentence would usually raise some red flags for me, since I get 2-3 Dear. Mr. So And So your long lost uncle Dr. Whozawhat has your $20,000,000 emails per day from these guys. But this one was different.

It talked about some things I do at my current job:

Preparation of Business Impact Analysis, Stakeholder Analysis,
Organizational Risk Assessment/ systems audit, review across
infrastructure and platforms of the project, Communication Plan,
Sponsorship Plan and Education Requirements.
Liaising with IT and project teams in respect of the approval and
risk assessment on implementation and systems projects.
Advice on IT projects, risks and security matters.


And some things I don't currently do but could do:

1·Computer hardware installation and installation of selected
software.
2.Application development/maintenance for duration of contract.
3.System Engineering.
4.IT strategy and planning.
5.Comprehensive networking throughout pertinent project facilities

Especially if you look at the next paragraph.

Salary indication (individual) - (US$20 000.00 monthly).

Well then, where do I sign up?

This programme would be carried out within the Shell Nigeria Exploration
and Production Company (SNEPCO);

One of the people I work with is from Nigeria - when I told him about this he laughed and said I would last about 6 hours in Laos. Apparently the police aren't authorized to work at night....

It took over a week, but Jobshark caught on and finally sent a warning for this. I wonder how many people tried to apply so far?

Jobshark regrets that it may have sent you an "IT SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR"
opportunity from an organization called Accenture Consulting
(unrelated to Accenture Ltd). We have discovered that this
organization is fraudulent and its business practice is illegal. Please
do not apply to this position. The position has been removed from our
web site. Please do not submit any requested personal identification
information or funds for any reason.

We appologize for any inconvenience this have caused you. Please free to
contact us with any further questions or concerns.


Those 4-1-9 scammers are getting really creative. Next they will be advertising on iTunes or Google.

Xerox - Factbook

Xerox - Factbook: "Board of directors authorizes repurchase of $1 billion in Xerox common stock."

Xerox is down 5% over the year.

Google Interview Questions - GameDev.Net Discussion Forums

Google Interview Questions - GameDev.Net Discussion Forums: "
Q: 'How many gas stations would you say there are in the United States?'

(my answer): A business doesn't stick around for long unless it makes a profit. Let's assume that all gas stations in the US are making at least some profit over the long run. Assume that the number of people who own more than one car is negligibly small relative to the total American population. Figure that 20% of people are too young to drive a car, another 10% can't drive because of disability or old age, 5% of people use public transportation or carpool, another 5% choose not to drive, and another 5% of the cars are inventory sitting in lots or warehouses that a dealership owns but which no one drives.

There's about 280 million people in the US; subtracting 50%, that means there's about 140 million automobiles and 140 million drivers for them. The busiest city or interstate gas stations probably get a customer pulling in about twice a minute, or about 120 customers per hour; a slower gas station out in an agrarian area probably sees a customer once every 10 or 15 minutes, or about 4 customers per hour. Let's take a weighted average and suppose there's about one customer every 90 seconds, or about 40 customers an hour. Figuring a fourteen-hour business day (staying open from 7 AM to 9 PM), that's about"

Warren's tidbits

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

Always fearful of derivatives, Warren's comments:

Remember that the rationale for establishing this unit in 1990 was Gen Re’s wish to meet the
needs of insurance clients. Yet one of the contracts we liquidated in 2005 had a term of 100 years! It’s
difficult to imagine what “need” such a contract could fulfill except, perhaps, the need of a compensation-conscious trader to have a long-dated contract on his books. Long contracts, or alternatively those with multiple variables, are the most difficult to mark to market (the standard procedure used in accounting for derivatives) and provide the most opportunity for “imagination” when traders are estimating their value.

Small wonder that traders promote them.

A business in which huge amounts of compensation flow from assumed numbers is obviously
fraught with danger. When two traders execute a transaction that has several, sometimes esoteric, variables
and a far-off settlement date, their respective firms must subsequently value these contracts whenever they
calculate their earnings. A given contract may be valued at one price by Firm A and at another by Firm B. You can bet that the valuation differences – and I’m personally familiar with several that were huge – tend to be tilted in a direction favoring higher earnings at each firm.

It’s a strange world in which two parties can carry out a paper transaction that each can promptly report as profitable.

So calculating options is an art, not a science, where two people trade paintings that are both more valuable than the other, as long as their worth is finally settled years into the future.

Warren almost apologizes to us shareholders in his letter for 2005.

I dwell on our experience in derivatives each year for two reasons. One is personal and
unpleasant. The hard fact is that I have cost you a lot of money by not moving immediately to close down Gen Re’s trading operation.

...

When we finally wind up Gen Re Securities, my feelings about its departure will be akin to those
expressed in a country song, “My wife ran away with my best friend, and I sure miss him a lot.”

Warren also admits failure with a few of his predictions:

Operating results at NetJets were a different story. I said last year that this business would earn
money in 2005 – and I was dead wrong.

He goes on happily about Europe making more money for NetJets, but comes back down to earth at the abysmal showing of the US market:

Despite a large increase in customers, however, our U.S. operation dipped far into the red. Its
efficiency fell, and costs soared.

On his major equity positions:

As a group, they may double in value in ten years.

Bill Cara disagress with Warren on this point, related to Gillette's CEO:

It’s hard to overemphasize the importance of who is CEO of a company.

On CEO compensation, coming from a man who pays himself just $100k per year (not like money really means anything to him anymore):

For his accomplishments, Jim was paid very well – but he earned every penny. (This is no academic evaluation: As a 9.7% owner of Gillette, Berkshire in effect paid that proportion of his compensation.) Indeed, it’s difficult to overpay the truly extraordinary CEO of a giant enterprise. But this species is rare.

This is an interesting note for all those companies repurchasing their stock:

Take, for instance, ten year, fixed-price options (and who wouldn’t?). If Fred Futile, CEO of
Stagnant, Inc., receives a bundle of these – let’s say enough to give him an option on 1% of the company –
his self-interest is clear: He should skip dividends entirely and instead use all of the company’s earnings to
repurchase stock.

...
Simply by withholding earnings from owners, Fred gets very rich, making a cool $158 million, despite the business itself improving not at all.

Here is a good metric on whether a dividend is Buffett-approved.

A “normal” dividend policy, of course – one-third of earnings paid out, for example – produces
less extreme results but still can provide lush rewards for managers who achieve nothing.

He spins together another wording for his buy and hold mantra:

Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole,
returns decrease as motion increases.

And quite possibly the biggest reason why the Dow has been tanking lately...

Here’s the answer to the question posed at the beginning of this section: To get very specific, the
the Dow increased from 65.73 to 11,497.12 in the 20 century, and that amounts to a gain of 5.3%
compounded annually. (Investors would also have received dividends, of course.) To achieve an equal rate of gain in the 21st century, the Dow will have to rise by December 31, 2099 to – brace yourself – precisely
2,011,011.23. But I’m willing to settle for 2,000,000; six years into this century, the Dow has gained not at
all.

Warren is a financial math genius. His most important point deals with risk:

Over the years, a number of very smart people have learned the hard way that a long string of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero.