MSFTextrememakeover: Still searching for a dividend strategy

MSFT announced a dividend increase.  Not quite keeping up with currency conversion, or inflation. 

The actual announcement? Another .01/Quarter increase - just like last time. That brings us to .44 annually, or 1.51% yield at the current closing price. But due to the now higher share value, that's actually a lower yield than when MSFT announced the last dividend increase (1.51% vs the then 1.54%). It's also a smaller % increase on its own. Clearly, management isn't telegraphing much confidence in the future stock price despite its depressed YTD performance.

By way of comparison, INTC's current yield is 1.77% and IBM's is 1.6%. The S&P 500 average is 1.71% (2.2% if you count just dividend-payers) and the DOW 30 average is around 2.3%. In other words, even with this increase, MSFT's dividend lags behind the S&P 500 average, the DOW 30 average, and behind some of its equivalent tech peers - as it has since inception. But the "bonus" is that you get worse-than-market stock performance too! For example, down over 2% YTD while the NAS is up more than 7%, for a total 9% relative underperformance (7%, if you want to compare to the S&P).

Source: MSFTextrememakeover: Still searching for a dividend strategy

U.S. DOJ says MS Euro ruling chills innovation and harms competition

What other companies helped with the ruling?

I.B.M., Oracle, Red Hat, RealNetworks and Nokia have applied to intervene against Microsoft in its court appeal of a European Union antitrust ruling last year, said the lawyer, Thomas Vinje.

What other companies are exposed to potential judgements against them?

Maybe Apple & Adobe?

A U.S. official's criticism of a European Union court ruling dismissing Microsoft's monopoly abuse appeal was "totally unacceptable," EU antitrust chief Neelie Kroes said Wednesday.

Kroes said it was wrong for a representative of the U.S. administration to criticize "an independent court of law outside its jurisdiction."

"The European Commission does not pass judgment on rulings by U.S. courts, and we expect the same degree of respect from U.S. authorities on rulings by EU courts," she said. "It is absolutely not done."

U.S. criticism of Microsoft ruling unacceptable, EU says

Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright - Telegraph

 

Looks like China is not the only one looking to divest of their dollar assets. 

Time to spend your PayPal funds!  How about EWZ?

Link to Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright - Telegraph

Northern Rock bank run in England

This is what I have been fearing over the last couple of months, really since June but more so since the August credit crunch.

London's Daily Telegraph explained this run by bank depositors by saying the "fears were prompted by the revelation this morning that [Northern Rock] Britain's fifth-biggest mortgage lender had to ask the Bank of England for emergency financial assistance."

Source: GoldMoney - Founder's Commentary

Do we have to worry about this in Canada?  Probably not.  Canada is tied with Australia for the soundest banking systems in the world.  The CDC insures accounts up to $100k per account.  If you have > $100k you may want to purchase alternate insurance or redistribute your holdings.  There have been only 2 bank failures since 1923, both with small regional banks in the 1980s.

Here's a huge paper from World Bank's web site outlining deposit insurance coverage per country.

Interesting to note that CMHC no longer holds a monopoly over housing mortgage insurance.  Three other companies, PMI, Triad, and AIG have offerings.

However, one thing to watch may be the drying up of liquidity in the financial sector, specifically in equity markets.  Another thing to note is that for foreign-owned banks to operate in Canada, all they need is a minimum of $10 million in capital to startup operations.

MSDN - Capital Markets Center

 

Integrating the Trading Value Chain via .NET Framework

This paper describes how .NET Framework 2.0 was used to integrate a strategy execution management system with grid-enabled trade order analytics and financial markets data management platform. Integration details and functional overviews of respective solutions are provided.

High-Performance Excel-Based Applications in Financial Services

This paper describes a comprehensive solution based on Microsoft and GigaSpaces technologies that addresses scalability and performance challenges with Excel-based applications in securities and capital markets industry. The solution combines the latest Microsoft technologies, including Office Excel, Excel Services and Windows Compute Cluster Server 2003 with GigaSpaces eXtreme Application Platform to deliver unparalleled usability, performance, and scalability.

.NET StockTrader Sample Application

This application is an end-to-end sample application for .NET Enterprise Application Server technologies. It is a service-oriented application based on Windows Communication Foundation (.NET 3.0) and ASP.NET, and illustrates many of the .NET enterprise development technologies for building highly scalable, rich "enterprise-connected" applications. It is designed as a benchmark kit to illustrate alternative technologies within .NET and their relative performance.

MSDN Architecture Webcast: Microsoft Technologies in Capital Markets

There are several Microsoft products that are directly and closely aligned with the needs of the Financial Services industry, including BizTalk Server 2006 and BizTalk Accelerator for SWIFT 2.1, Windows Compute Cluster Server (CCS) 2003, Excel 2007 Client, and Excel Services in Office SharePoint Server 2007. This presentation will provide an overview of these products with a specific focus on the Capital Markets industry.

Source: Capital Markets Center

investbulls Fibonacci calculator

 

The Fibonacci calculator will generate four basic Fibonacci retracement values - 23.8%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. The idea behind retracement levels is that these are the support and resistance values for a stock trend at which the most important breaks or bounces can appear. You can set your stop-loss, take-profit as well as stop and limit orders at these levels or around their values.

A 38.2% retracement normally means that the prior trend will continue,
and are treated as pullbacks in an uptrend.

A 61.8% retracement implies a new trend is establishing itself.

A 50% retracement implies indecision.

investbulls

Finding Canadian statistics

Huge list of statistics datasets. 

Finding Canadian statistics

India Stock Trading - End of Day Prices

 

Description

Get FREE End of the Day Data of NSE Equity with Open Interest, NSE Future, NSE Call Put BSE Equity.
Download Files from:
1) http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/NSEBSE_EOD/files
OR
2) http://groups.google.com/group/nsebse_eod/files

NSEBSE_EOD : NSEBSE_EOD

the Exchange Newsletter -- An Information Source for eSignal Subscribers

 

Here are the recommended specifications of a new trading computer for today:

1. Intel e6700 CPU or higher dual or quad cores
2. At least 2GB of 800MHz DDR2 or DDR3 RAM
3. SATA Hard Disk Drives of 7,200 or 10,000 RPM
4. Antec Silent P182 quiet case
5. Motherboards with 3 - 4 PCIE video slots
6. Video cards with at least 256MB of RAM and support screens of at least 24 inches; support for 4 - 10 monitors
7. 20X DVD / CDRW optical drives
8. PCAngel or Acronis backup system

Finally, it is recommended that trading computers need to be updated to, generally, the best technology every two years. It could be very expensive for a trader to use slow, outdated equipment in this fast-moving trading environment.

Source: the Exchange Newsletter -- An Information Source for eSignal Subscribers

How Market Turmoil Waylaid the 'Quants' - WSJ.com

 Should have put a sign around his neck, "I'm worth $60 million dollars more than you and I don't need your change."

Mr. Maclin of Pragma Financial recalls seeing Mr. Muller playing on a subway platform: "People were dropping change in his [keyboard case] not realizing the guy is worth millions."

Source: How Market Turmoil Waylaid the 'Quants' - WSJ.com

Place your bets...

HGU.TO - Gold Up

HGD.TO - Gold Down

Eugene Asahara & Super Crunching

 Statistics and the manipulation of them have interested me since I saw Freakonomics writer Steven Levitt speak about street gangs and how they're like McDonalds.

The theme of superiority of super crunchers versus domain experts seems to take a bit of a somewhat ironic turn in one of the examples. On page 196, Ayres begins a discussion on the effectiveness of Las Vegas sports bookies based on work by Justin Wolfers. In a nutshell, when the point spread was below 12 points, the chance of a team beating the spread seems to fall almost perfectly into the predicted bell curve.

However, if the point spread was more than 12, the chance a team would beat the spread fell slightly left of the mean. Justin Wolfers hypothesized that there is point shaving by bribed players. He investigated and found that the point spread was right on track until five minutes before the end of games and felt this could supports the hypothesis. With a large padding with only five minutes to go, a bribed player could shave points without risking a loss for the team.

Eugene Asahara

Smith Manoeuvre pays for McD's

 

Anyway, enough with psycho-finance and let’s take a look at what is happening in my Smith Manoeuvre. Another $600 was added to my investment portfolio on August 1^st. Therefore, I am at $-3,500 in my line of credit. My investments (plus reinvested divided) are at $3,477.91. I must admit that it went down my much more in the middle of the month, but that is only part of normal market fluctuation. Interest paid so far is $19,99. Therefore, I will receive about $8 in tax return so far. It is not really impressive, but at the end of the year, it will pay for McD’s!

The Financial Blogger » Smith Manoeuvre

World Gold Council > value

Includes links to an Excel Data file 

Spot gold in a range of currencies since January 2000. Updated 3rd September 2007

Source: World Gold Council > value

Eugene Asahara : Picking Stocks with the Association Algorithm

 

What I want is to identify sets of conditions that are a leading indicator of a stock movement. For example, if my dog hears rattling of keys and sees me putting on my shoes, it’s a sign of the possibility of going on a walk. For experts in the stock market, this is quite duh. However, for everyday people like me (the amateurs), we tend to be more reactive. Meaning, we tend to become attracted to a stock after it starts rising. So, amateurs normally have one leading indicator and that is “a good stock to buy is one that is rising.” It’s rare that amateurs can take advantage of significant moves once it’s actually noticed.

I’m using the association rules algorithm from Analysis Services 2005 to figure out things like: On days that INTC rises significantly, MSFT often rises significantly too. However, I don’t intend to use that knowledge to simply buy MSFT when I notice INTC going up. There’s not much value in that in itself. The value arises in realizing there is a connection between the fortunes of MSFT and INTC. So, if there is a situation where INTC announces its quarterly earnings before MSFT, I’ll have a good clue that MSFT’s quarter will be similar. This won’t work well on stocks as well-known as these two. If INTC announced a great quarter, MSFT will immediately start rising. But perhaps there are pairs that go relatively unnoticed.

Eugene Asahara : Picking Stocks with the Association Algorithm

Diving into Dark Pools

 

These so-called alternative trading systems are propagating rapidly, are often labeled "dark pools" because of their nebulous and murky nature. Estimated to handle about 1 out 10 shares traded each day in the U.S., dark pools are meeting a need by institutions to grab or dump stocks quietly -- and anonymously. Like Liquidnet, many of them sport imaginative brand names in a nod to science fiction, such as Sigma X, VortEx and Block Alert.

In the harsh light of a public marketplace like the floor of the NYSE, an institution trying to pull off a massive trade runs the risk of making a big splash that will move the market. But in a dark pool, a big fish can jump in without so much as a ripple.

Source: The secret stock market: Upstart systems rewrite rules of trading - MarketWatch

Tradery.com

 

tradery.com is a free trading system development community where anybody can develop and share advanced trading strategies.

Source: Tradery.com

Technical Analysis Library And Software Links

 

ASM
Santa Fe Institute "Artificial Stock Market" simulation model.

Advanced Stock Tracker
Web based application to keep track of stocks.

BeanCounter
Perl module. Stock market data analysis and performance evaluation. Both current and historical data can be retrieved and stored in an SQL database.

BlogTrader
Platform built on java. Pluggable architecture for custom indicators and charts.

CCAPI
A java financial library and a trading application framework.

Finance::Quote
Perl module to retrieve market data from Australia, USA, Canada, Europe, and a number of managed funds.

Finance::QuoteHist
Perl modules that fetch historical stock prices from the web.

EclipseTrader
Stock trading system including Level II/Market view depth. Written in Java run on Eclipse

GeniusTrader
Perl toolbox to create and back test trading systems.

iTrade
Charting and trading system written in Python.

ITSDoc.org
Investment and Trading System Documentation Project.

Lidgren
Charting with TA indicators. Written in Java

Marketier.org
Online charting and analysis tool

Merchant of Venice
Stock market trading application with portfolio management, charting and genetic algorithm.

MAS
Market Analysis System (MAS). Analysis using technical analysis, charting, and automated batch processing of market data.

MATLAB Toolbox
Open-source MATLAB tools for mechanical trading.

OJTS
Open Java Trading System.

QTStalker
Charting package using the portable QT Library.

QuantLib
Software framework for quantitative finance.

QuickFIX
C++ FIX (Financial Information eXchange) engine.

Robot Trader
Framework for back testing written in Java.

SMTM
Perl/Tk ticker, profit/loss calculator, and chart tool. Provides also: rquantlib, yahooquote and beancounter.

TADoc.org
Technical Analysis Documentation and Forum Project

TA-Lib
A technical analysis software library for software engineer.

Tradery.com
A free online trading community. Back test and optionally share strategies with others.

TsInvest
Computes the optimal gains of multiple equity investments.

XMLWorks
MarketAlert + Perl utility like "Reorder" price columns in ASCII files or generate point and figure in html.

XTrader
Charting software. Contains portfolio module. Linux and Windows.

Source: Technical Analysis Library And Software Links

SEC Latest Filings 2 Dapp

Dapp spits out RSS feeds, Google Calendar feeds, Map feeds, practically anything from anything. 

Dapp Description

This shows the latest filings on sec.gov regardless of filer

Source: SEC Latest Filings 2 Dapp

Fat Pitch Financials' Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Seeking Alpha

 

Today, I’m going to share with you my top five favorite investing hacks. These are not just tricks of computer programming. What I’m talking about here are tips, tricks, and tools for getting investment research done more quickly and efficiently by taking advantage of the web to automate, organize and increase productivity. My favorite hacks for intelligent investors are as follows:

Source: Fat Pitch Financials' Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Seeking Alpha

TD Waterhouse Lowers Commissions

 

TD Waterhouse has announced a new commission schedule effective September 4, 2007:

Clients with household assets of $100,000 or more with TD Waterhouse Discount Brokerage will pay a flat rate of $9.99 per Canadian or US equity trade.

If you qualify for the lower commissions, TD Waterhouse becomes the best choice for consolidating all your brokerage accounts. In addition to the new lower commissions, TD Waterhouse also offers wash trades and the opportunity to invest in the e-Series index funds.

Source: Canadian Capitalist — A Personal Finance Weblog

Getting rid of the middle man

 

“Because of Google’s campaign to simultaneously reduce duplicate articles, the original wire service article is likely to be featured in Google News instead of versions of the same article from newspaper customers, sapping ad revenue to those newspapers.”

In a sense, the deal with Google News puts wire services such as Reuters and AP into competition with the newspapers that are its members and customers — and will only increase the pressure on newspapers (and there are a lot of them) that continue to rely on wire copy to fill both their virtual and their real pages. And this new development is particularly interesting given Google’s recent plan to allow newsmakers to comment on Google News stories.

Source: Google and the wires torpedo newspapers » mathewingram.com/work

Conn. home 20-times larger than average - Yahoo! News

 

The enormity of the house Arnold Chase is building on Avon Mountain isn't fully apparent from the outside, where only 17,000 square feet of it lies in plain view.

It's the two-level, 33,500-square-foot basement complex, complete with a 103-seat movie theater, ticket booth, concession stand, game room and music annex, that will make it New England's largest occupied single-family home.

Source: Conn. home 20-times larger than average - Yahoo! News