Sunday, August 28, 2011

Deposit Rates Could Turn Negative in This Bizarro World

Bank’s don’t want your money.  They have the benefit of cheaper wholesale money vs. retail money, and just like a self-storage locker it costs them to secure, insure and heat your money.  If it’s cheaper to buy wholesale vs. used, then why buy used?

This article makes some mentions about the 80/20 rule, and currently we’re in the 80% fear, 20% greed mode.  Retirees are joining their friends at staggering levels, and pretty soon there might be more capital sitting in banks than there is deployed to real assets, and companies are cash-rich. 

Watch the next few years as the adult demographic segment moves to the elderly demographic segment, and 20% of the US population is adult, 80% is elderly or child. 

From Wolfram Alpha, some info on the US population.

population | 309 million people  (world rank: 3rd)  (2010 estimate)\npopulation density | 33.7 people\/km^2  (people per square kilometer)  (world rank: 178th)  (2010 estimate)\npopulation growth | 0.969% per year  (world rank: 138th)  (2008 estimate)\nlife expectancy | 78.1 years  (world rank: 50th)  (2009 estimate)\nmedian age | 36.7 years  (world rank: 56th)  (2009 estimate)


Distribution:

 | child | adult | elderly | all\nmale | 10.3% | 33.42% | 5.501% | 49.22%\nfemale | 9.865% | 33.57% | 7.347% | 50.78%\nall | 20.16% | 66.99% | 12.85% | 100%

The 30-year bond has surpassed commodities as the investment of choice, signaling great fear in the markets as investors park their Ferraris and drive their winter-beater BMWs.  When it flips around, watch for money to fall into things like food, precious metals, and energy.  Until we get another boom of tweens and teens and twenty-somethings, consumer and discretionary will continue to fall by the wayside.

For those retirees having more than $50 million in the bank, watch for your bank manager to treat you like Tony Montana.  We just can’t handle that much money Tony, our investors are asking questions!

Back in November, Geller predicted that a major bank would begin to charge depositors for deposit accounts of over a certain size and earlier in August, the Bank of New York Mellon sent a letter to institutional depositors informing them that the bank would begin to charge fees on deposits above $50 million.

Deposit Rates Could Turn Negative in This Bizarro World

Monday, August 08, 2011

US Downgrade

How is it that the City of Peterborough, Ontario gets the same rating (actually, better) than the US Government? Nikola Swann was the secondary analyst on the Peterborough rating, and the primary analyst on the US Government downgrade.

Truly a Black Swann day today on the markets.

Monday, May 09, 2011

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Looking to the Future with Options

As time progresses, options become riskier and riskier to hold.  Good Traders, like good drivers, look as far ahead as possible.  


But what a lot of option traders don’t appreciate is that time decay kind of gums up the works for this calculation. Options lose value by the amount of their theta each day. But theta doesn’t come out of the option price on the closing bell each day. Professional traders have been around the block. They know theta is coming. So they move the day in their models ahead sometime during the trading day (i.e., before the end of the day) to get ahead of the game. In fact, towards the end of the week, they generally start taking time out of their models more aggressively because they need to take out a total of three days of decay to account for the weekend. Often, by the end of the day Friday, they have moved 
their models ahead three full days to reflect Monday’s theoretical prices


So is the secret to winning in the stock market to not look at yesterday's close but to look at the next 3 days of potential opens and what the futures/options markets are doing?

Friday, April 01, 2011

Volatility Index Alternatives

Using VIX in combination with CDS premiums (how much a company has to pay to borrow) indicates to me volatility in the market and risk of owning an individual stock (along with Beta).  There's a more accurate/up-to-date way of doing things with VIF and VIN.


Now, here is the fun part. It is a little known fact that the CBOE actually maintains separate indices for the near-term month VIX (VIN) and the far-term month VIX (VIF). Just pop those tickers into your streaming quotes and you too can watch not just the VIX, but the two components used in the VIX constant maturity blend. Right now, for instance, I show a VIX of 17.88, a VIN of 16.98 and a VIF or 18.23.  Just be sure to keep track of the SPX options series roll eight trading days before the VIX options expiration.


There are even some ties to individual stock prices.