Bunch of Canadian stock screeners.
Top Canadian Stock Screeners
Monday, May 09, 2011
Sunday, April 03, 2011
Looking to the Future with Options
As time progresses, options become riskier and riskier to hold. Good Traders, like good drivers, look as far ahead as possible.
But what a lot of option traders don’t appreciate is that time decay kind of gums up the works for this calculation. Options lose value by the amount of their theta each day. But theta doesn’t come out of the option price on the closing bell each day. Professional traders have been around the block. They know theta is coming. So they move the day in their models ahead sometime during the trading day (i.e., before the end of the day) to get ahead of the game. In fact, towards the end of the week, they generally start taking time out of their models more aggressively because they need to take out a total of three days of decay to account for the weekend. Often, by the end of the day Friday, they have moved
their models ahead three full days to reflect Monday’s theoretical prices
So is the secret to winning in the stock market to not look at yesterday's close but to look at the next 3 days of potential opens and what the futures/options markets are doing?
But what a lot of option traders don’t appreciate is that time decay kind of gums up the works for this calculation. Options lose value by the amount of their theta each day. But theta doesn’t come out of the option price on the closing bell each day. Professional traders have been around the block. They know theta is coming. So they move the day in their models ahead sometime during the trading day (i.e., before the end of the day) to get ahead of the game. In fact, towards the end of the week, they generally start taking time out of their models more aggressively because they need to take out a total of three days of decay to account for the weekend. Often, by the end of the day Friday, they have moved
their models ahead three full days to reflect Monday’s theoretical prices
So is the secret to winning in the stock market to not look at yesterday's close but to look at the next 3 days of potential opens and what the futures/options markets are doing?
Friday, April 01, 2011
Volatility Index Alternatives
Using VIX in combination with CDS premiums (how much a company has to pay to borrow) indicates to me volatility in the market and risk of owning an individual stock (along with Beta). There's a more accurate/up-to-date way of doing things with VIF and VIN.
Now, here is the fun part. It is a little known fact that the CBOE actually maintains separate indices for the near-term month VIX (VIN) and the far-term month VIX (VIF). Just pop those tickers into your streaming quotes and you too can watch not just the VIX, but the two components used in the VIX constant maturity blend. Right now, for instance, I show a VIX of 17.88, a VIN of 16.98 and a VIF or 18.23. Just be sure to keep track of the SPX options series roll eight trading days before the VIX options expiration.
There are even some ties to individual stock prices.
Now, here is the fun part. It is a little known fact that the CBOE actually maintains separate indices for the near-term month VIX (VIN) and the far-term month VIX (VIF). Just pop those tickers into your streaming quotes and you too can watch not just the VIX, but the two components used in the VIX constant maturity blend. Right now, for instance, I show a VIX of 17.88, a VIN of 16.98 and a VIF or 18.23. Just be sure to keep track of the SPX options series roll eight trading days before the VIX options expiration.
There are even some ties to individual stock prices.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Financial blog wars » Investment Postcards from Cape Town
Top of 2010
Josh Brown, writer of The Reformed Broker blog, this year again compiled a table of financial bloggers. Investment Postcards received the honor of being included in the Big Picture category.
Josh commented as follows: “First, some caveats – I tried to include all the blogs I keep up with at least semi-regularly. There may be some newer or less frequently updated blogs that aren’t here – please no hard feelings if we missed you, there’s always next year. I also didn’t include all the tweeters and video bloggers, many of whom I consider to be great in their own right.”
Here’s the 2010 list.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
Warren's letter to investors was released last month. My 1 share of Berkshire Class B stock has taken a big hit since September, primarily due to lack of confidence in the markets and adjustments to valuations across the board. Ticket to the annual meeting is getting cheaper...
Warren has an excuse for this - the bad guys are getting the handouts while the good guys are suffering, with no end in sight. He admits to making some stupid mistakes, and also inadvertently avoiding even stupider ones by having his "lowball" offers rejected.
Perhaps if Warren bought a new home it would set an example for the rest of America... since he has been living in the same one for the last 50 years. If not a new home, perhaps a car company?
Warren & Co. still beat the S&P by 27% last year... not a bad deal until you consider they also lost 9%, and much more as of this year.
I don't take yearly gain/losses #'s too seriously. Unless you bought the stock at the Jan 2 price and sold at the Dec 23 price, your losses and gains are something different. In addition, currency exchange also has a dramatic effect if you do not live in the US and are dealing in USD.
Some further insight into what I have figured is the primary reason why companies are failing:
Now, imagine that all of the city’s bonds had instead been insured by Berkshire. Would similar belt-
tightening, tax increases, labor concessions, etc. have been forthcoming? Of course not. At a minimum, Berkshire would have been asked to “share” in the required sacrifices. And, considering our deep pockets, the required contribution would most certainly have been substantial.
I believe insurance on debt and recent risk management practices have caused this spiral, as speculators of this insurance and increasing spread values force their "names" to default after being unable to borrow. Why else would some of the largest companies in the world get dragged into the quagmire of bankruptcy?
The type of fallacy involved in projecting loss experience from a universe of non-insured bonds onto a
deceptively-similar universe in which many bonds are insured pops up in other areas of finance. “Back-tested” models of many kinds are susceptible to this sort of error. Nevertheless, they are frequently touted in financial markets as guides to future action. (If merely looking up past financial data would tell you what the future holds, the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians.)
99 years of historical data can't be wrong Warren! :)
Another reason for the economic downward spiral is the loss of confidence in the entire system, due to a number of Ponzi schemes. It is ironic that Charles Ponzi's company was called the Securities and Exchange Company. It's no surprise that people will look the other way while they are making money, and then as soon as there is some government intervention and scrutiny about shady deals that money will go running for the hills.
Another cause for the downfall? Megatrends... baby boomers harvesting their retirement pensions before they disappear. The root cause, however, has been explained very clearly.
Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood
using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols.
Our advice: Beware of geeks bearing formulas.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Paris 2008: Lamborghini Estoque LIVE - Autoblog
For the billionaire who's stock portfolio now compels him or her to car-pool, comes a new 4-door Lambo sedan.
Baby seat optional.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Techdirt: Apparently The Financial Crisis Is The Fault Of Flickering Computer Screens
How many of you as investors have requested paper copies of annual reports?
So the 3 of you that have, how many got beyond the glossy photos?
You must be the one holding cash right now.
It's all the fault of the OK button.
The whole thing, starting with the subprime, is the fault of the computer. I was just talking to a banker the other day, and not that long ago, 20 years ago, an investment banking house, let's say, Lehman Brothers, when it got a package of mortgages, they would go through every mortgage, every single one, and they'd throw out the ones that just seemed absurd, they just wouldn't accept them. Things used to arrive on paper. Today things arrive on a screen, and a screen is back lit, and one of the biggest pains in the neck is trying to read something dully written and complicated on a computer screen. It will drive you nuts -- I mean, try it sometime. Now they say, "Oh, to hell with it," and they just accept the whole package. And if it hadn't been for that, they'd be going over each loan. What's happened is the backward march of technology.
Techdirt: Apparently The Financial Crisis Is The Fault Of Flickering Computer Screens
YouTube - Strong bad - important rap song
Kidz don't play wit 2 many knives
Wish I listened to this before buying into the markets last week.
Monday, September 08, 2008
naked capitalism: Credit Default Swap Worries Go Mainstream
This article is from February, 2008. It applies now more than ever after the FRE/FNM bailout.
Strange that the 2 entities weren't halted after the news of their impending bailout.
Bloomberg.com: LSE Trading Crash
The breakdown left traders in Europe's financial capital in limbo as equities around the world rallied on the U.S. government's takeover of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The LSE, Europe's oldest independent exchange, said attempts to fix its biggest computer failure in more than eight years was ``taking longer than expected.''
``The LSE will come out of this very, very badly,'' said Omer Bhatti, head sales trader at WorldSpreads Group Plc in London. ``People will begin to think seriously about having alternatives.''
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Hewlett-Packard: Hewlett-Packard Crowned Head Of The Stupid Shipping Gang After Packing 32 Sheets Of Paper In 17 Boxes
This is a good reason not to buy HP stock. Unless they charge for shipping!
Leading the stupid shipping gang takes creative incompetence, and Hewlett-Packard is clearly up to the task. Other companies might have turned to email when faced with the challenge of shipping sixteen software licenses. Not Hewlett-Packard! HP went looking for a box. A really big box, which they filled with sixteen smaller boxes, each containing two precious pieces of paper ensconced in a layer of protective foam.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
ING DIRECT Canada: The Tax-Free Savings Account
ING has started marketing a tax free account for Canadians... whenever the budget for 2008 gets approved.
So what does this really mean? Soon you will have all the features that you have come to expect from ING DIRECT – like high interest, no fees, no minimums – PLUS the added benefit of no taxes on the interest earned in your Tax-Free Savings Account. Your hard earned money has already been taxed – now the interest it earns won't get taxed again.
Friday, July 11, 2008
FDIC Bank Closing Information for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA
Another one bites the dust - to the tune of $1 billion in uninsured deposits.
On July 11, 2008, IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA was closed by the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. All non-brokered insured deposit accounts have been transferred to IndyMac Federal Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA ("assuming institution") a new FDIC-insured Federal Mutual Savings Bank. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.
FDIC Bank Closing Information for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Investors see higher risk of GM default: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Things are getting messy out there. It used to be that $33k or $66k would have been okay for swap insurance. Then it was $100k. Risk-free borrowing was virtually, well, free.
Now it costs over $3 million to borrow $10 million?
Not gonna happen. Money no longer grows with CDS. How does it work?
The cost to insure GM's debt with credit default swaps rose to 33.5 percent upfront, or $3.35 million per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, plus annual payments of 500 basis points, according to Markit.
Investors see higher risk of GM default: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
The Fed Overnight rate has gone from an average of 3.94% in January to it's current rate of 1.98%... or free money... however it's not going to last. The hold on Fed funds caused a plunge in the markets that could cause another "cry wolf" scenario over the weekend and someone to bail.
Will it be GM? GE? Boeing? Oshkosh B'gosh?
Libor spike could be the cause of this too... or the opposite?
Some large caps with low P/E's
Altria - smoking will probably go up after today.
Barclays - Nobody wants a bank stock in this day and age... even if it yields 14%. Down by half 52wk.
ING Groep - Your money?
Lloyds TSB - Nobody wants insurance... Even if it yields 14%? Down just below half 52wk.
National Grid - What's wrong with UNG & electricity in the UK & US?
Interesting to note that ADRs are the lowest P/E.... probably due to the premium in holding them.
Other low P/E - high Yield stocks... according to Google Stock Screener.
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Aircastle - +Gas price = -AYR
Anthracite - Dividend increased, along with going to the market? Sounds fishy...
Arbor - Structured finance??? Who does that anymore?
Bank of Ireland - On strike.
I could go on... there's nothing that's of interest here though... except maybe Gramercy?
Keycorp raising 1.5B and halving dividend.
Lloyds buying a bank?
MCG Capital? Too small to worry about.
How about Colonial BancGroup? Last year? $22/shr. This year? $4/shr.
Raises $333 million in the markets.
Robert Lowder has been CEO since 1981. He's 65? Time to retire?
He probably wishes he did last year.
The second-largest bank in Alabama isn't doing so well, according to the share price.
Might be worth a look.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Save a drowning victim...
Berkshire's philosophy for financial metrics.
CM: One metric catches people. We prefer businesses that drown in cash. An example of a different business is construction equipment. You work hard all year and there is your profit sitting in the yard. We avoid businesses like that.
Reflections on Value Investing: 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting: Detailed Notes
Some publicly listed companies that are "drowning in cash" at the moment.
Heidrick & Struggles International Inc. (HSII) - down 40% Y/Y
Cryo-Cell International Inc. (CCEL.OB) - down 68% Y/Y
Apparently swimming in cash is a bit different than drowning in it, as these 0 debt companies seem to indicate. It's not 0 debt, it's Cash Flow that's King.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - down 3.6% Y/Y
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) - up 13.5% Y/Y
Reflections on Value Investing: 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting: Detailed Notes
Financial investment advice for small amounts of money.
For someone with $50+ billion dollars in the bank, I wonder what a small amount really is?
Q23: With small sums of money, what strategies would you pursue?
WB: If I were working with small sums of money, it would open up thousands of possibilities. We found very mispriced bonds. We found them in Korea a few years ago. You made big returns but had to be small size. I wouldn’t be in currencies with small amount of money. I had a friend who used to buy tax liens. I’d look in small stocks or specialized bonds. Wouldn’t you say that Charlie?
CM: Sure.
Reflections on Value Investing: 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting: Detailed Notes
More on tax lien certificates.
This really only applies to the U.S. though. Nothing to add.
The system in Canada for dealing with delinquent taxes is much different than in the U.S. This is a non-technical, non-official, very much abbreviated summary of how it works in Canada: The local government does not take action on delinquent property taxes until they haven’t been paid for three years. Then any entity with an interest in the property (such as the mortgage holder) gets a chance to pay the taxes and foreclose on the property. If no such entity takes action, then the opportunity becomes available to the public, and the entire process can take four years. In Toronto, for example, they see just one or two of these a year open up to an investor.
If you want to find out more about how tax liens work and how common they are in a particular area, the best thing to do is to contact the real estate section of your municipality.
Charlie Don't Surf - Reflections on Value Investing: 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting: Detailed Notes
Charlie Munger is one of my mentors. Here's a good tidbit from the latest AGM for Berkshire that pretty much sums up the subprime crisis, and the "risk management" field when it comes to complex investments like CDOs and SIVs.
CM: You can see how risk averse Berkshire is. We try to behave in a way so that no rational person will worry about our credit. We also try to behave in a way that if people don’t like our credit we wouldn’t notice for months. That double layering of protection against risk is like breathing. The alternative culture is you call a man a Chief Risk Officer, but often he is man who makes you feel good while you do dumb things. Like the Delphic oracle, a dumb soothsayer, and how can he do dumb things if he has a PHD and can do all the advanced math! You crave a system such that you torture reality to fit a structure that doesn’t match with extreme situations in reality, you feel confident because you compute the risks, but you haven’t -- you have just clobbered up your own head.
Reflections on Value Investing: 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting: Detailed Notes
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Boo-yah
I always enjoy a good conspiracy story. This one takes the cake. Put on your tinfoil hat... cause there's lots of it in this one.
But Cramer don’t know nothin’ about nothin’. And Herb thinks the SEC investigation is an outrage. So Herb and Cramer have commandeered CNBC. They are live on CNBC. Herb has jabbered something about a conspiracy - a conspiracy to get Herb. And now Cramer is going to show us something.
And the moral of the story? There's no morals on Wall Street.
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