Eugene Asahara : Picking Stocks with the Association Algorithm

 

What I want is to identify sets of conditions that are a leading indicator of a stock movement. For example, if my dog hears rattling of keys and sees me putting on my shoes, it’s a sign of the possibility of going on a walk. For experts in the stock market, this is quite duh. However, for everyday people like me (the amateurs), we tend to be more reactive. Meaning, we tend to become attracted to a stock after it starts rising. So, amateurs normally have one leading indicator and that is “a good stock to buy is one that is rising.” It’s rare that amateurs can take advantage of significant moves once it’s actually noticed.

I’m using the association rules algorithm from Analysis Services 2005 to figure out things like: On days that INTC rises significantly, MSFT often rises significantly too. However, I don’t intend to use that knowledge to simply buy MSFT when I notice INTC going up. There’s not much value in that in itself. The value arises in realizing there is a connection between the fortunes of MSFT and INTC. So, if there is a situation where INTC announces its quarterly earnings before MSFT, I’ll have a good clue that MSFT’s quarter will be similar. This won’t work well on stocks as well-known as these two. If INTC announced a great quarter, MSFT will immediately start rising. But perhaps there are pairs that go relatively unnoticed.

Eugene Asahara : Picking Stocks with the Association Algorithm

Diving into Dark Pools

 

These so-called alternative trading systems are propagating rapidly, are often labeled "dark pools" because of their nebulous and murky nature. Estimated to handle about 1 out 10 shares traded each day in the U.S., dark pools are meeting a need by institutions to grab or dump stocks quietly -- and anonymously. Like Liquidnet, many of them sport imaginative brand names in a nod to science fiction, such as Sigma X, VortEx and Block Alert.

In the harsh light of a public marketplace like the floor of the NYSE, an institution trying to pull off a massive trade runs the risk of making a big splash that will move the market. But in a dark pool, a big fish can jump in without so much as a ripple.

Source: The secret stock market: Upstart systems rewrite rules of trading - MarketWatch

Tradery.com

 

tradery.com is a free trading system development community where anybody can develop and share advanced trading strategies.

Source: Tradery.com

Technical Analysis Library And Software Links

 

ASM
Santa Fe Institute "Artificial Stock Market" simulation model.

Advanced Stock Tracker
Web based application to keep track of stocks.

BeanCounter
Perl module. Stock market data analysis and performance evaluation. Both current and historical data can be retrieved and stored in an SQL database.

BlogTrader
Platform built on java. Pluggable architecture for custom indicators and charts.

CCAPI
A java financial library and a trading application framework.

Finance::Quote
Perl module to retrieve market data from Australia, USA, Canada, Europe, and a number of managed funds.

Finance::QuoteHist
Perl modules that fetch historical stock prices from the web.

EclipseTrader
Stock trading system including Level II/Market view depth. Written in Java run on Eclipse

GeniusTrader
Perl toolbox to create and back test trading systems.

iTrade
Charting and trading system written in Python.

ITSDoc.org
Investment and Trading System Documentation Project.

Lidgren
Charting with TA indicators. Written in Java

Marketier.org
Online charting and analysis tool

Merchant of Venice
Stock market trading application with portfolio management, charting and genetic algorithm.

MAS
Market Analysis System (MAS). Analysis using technical analysis, charting, and automated batch processing of market data.

MATLAB Toolbox
Open-source MATLAB tools for mechanical trading.

OJTS
Open Java Trading System.

QTStalker
Charting package using the portable QT Library.

QuantLib
Software framework for quantitative finance.

QuickFIX
C++ FIX (Financial Information eXchange) engine.

Robot Trader
Framework for back testing written in Java.

SMTM
Perl/Tk ticker, profit/loss calculator, and chart tool. Provides also: rquantlib, yahooquote and beancounter.

TADoc.org
Technical Analysis Documentation and Forum Project

TA-Lib
A technical analysis software library for software engineer.

Tradery.com
A free online trading community. Back test and optionally share strategies with others.

TsInvest
Computes the optimal gains of multiple equity investments.

XMLWorks
MarketAlert + Perl utility like "Reorder" price columns in ASCII files or generate point and figure in html.

XTrader
Charting software. Contains portfolio module. Linux and Windows.

Source: Technical Analysis Library And Software Links

SEC Latest Filings 2 Dapp

Dapp spits out RSS feeds, Google Calendar feeds, Map feeds, practically anything from anything. 

Dapp Description

This shows the latest filings on sec.gov regardless of filer

Source: SEC Latest Filings 2 Dapp

Fat Pitch Financials' Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Seeking Alpha

 

Today, I’m going to share with you my top five favorite investing hacks. These are not just tricks of computer programming. What I’m talking about here are tips, tricks, and tools for getting investment research done more quickly and efficiently by taking advantage of the web to automate, organize and increase productivity. My favorite hacks for intelligent investors are as follows:

Source: Fat Pitch Financials' Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Seeking Alpha

TD Waterhouse Lowers Commissions

 

TD Waterhouse has announced a new commission schedule effective September 4, 2007:

Clients with household assets of $100,000 or more with TD Waterhouse Discount Brokerage will pay a flat rate of $9.99 per Canadian or US equity trade.

If you qualify for the lower commissions, TD Waterhouse becomes the best choice for consolidating all your brokerage accounts. In addition to the new lower commissions, TD Waterhouse also offers wash trades and the opportunity to invest in the e-Series index funds.

Source: Canadian Capitalist — A Personal Finance Weblog

Getting rid of the middle man

 

“Because of Google’s campaign to simultaneously reduce duplicate articles, the original wire service article is likely to be featured in Google News instead of versions of the same article from newspaper customers, sapping ad revenue to those newspapers.”

In a sense, the deal with Google News puts wire services such as Reuters and AP into competition with the newspapers that are its members and customers — and will only increase the pressure on newspapers (and there are a lot of them) that continue to rely on wire copy to fill both their virtual and their real pages. And this new development is particularly interesting given Google’s recent plan to allow newsmakers to comment on Google News stories.

Source: Google and the wires torpedo newspapers » mathewingram.com/work

Conn. home 20-times larger than average - Yahoo! News

 

The enormity of the house Arnold Chase is building on Avon Mountain isn't fully apparent from the outside, where only 17,000 square feet of it lies in plain view.

It's the two-level, 33,500-square-foot basement complex, complete with a 103-seat movie theater, ticket booth, concession stand, game room and music annex, that will make it New England's largest occupied single-family home.

Source: Conn. home 20-times larger than average - Yahoo! News

China sends sponges to mop up liquidity

China Sells $79 Billion Bonds to Set Up Reserves Fund

``The bond market will feel the impact of the special issue gradually as the central bank will use it mainly as a tool to absorb liquidity,'' said Lu Wenlei, an analyst with Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai. Lu said the central bank will reduce issuance of bills to make room for the new debt.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

How Mark Cuban trades

 

L.G.: What percentage of your net worth do you have in the markets, versus C.D.’s and other risk-averse investments, and how do you decide where to put your money? What stocks do you like, dislike?
M.C.: I don’t know the percentages. I stay pretty conservative and try to stick to things that pay me rather than things I just pray go up because someone else decided to buy some shares.
I have some stock investments that I have made over the years but don’t look at them very often and haven’t traded them much if at all over the past few years.

L.G.: And most important, how have you done?
M.C.: I do fine. I bought things that paid dividends or interest, and they go up over time. I will take positions in strategic shorts, meaning I don’t go through and read all the S.E.C. filings. I look for companies that are out-and-out liars or are in a business that I don’t think has a future. (And no, I’m not going to name names. Companies that are shorted tend to put more effort into being litigious rather than spending time trying to actually run a profitable business.)

Source: Executives Column - The World According to ... by Lloyd Grove: Mark Cuban - Portfolio.com

Stinkbidding

The practice of bidding on a stock that is in the toilet, at a price so low that it's really just a joke if you buy it. 

The biggest winners were the financials, which I said at the time were the most over-sold and bad-mouthed by Talking Heads. Of the worst examples of negativity in the market on August 15, Lehman Bros (LEH) has jumped +20.7 pct and Bear Stearns (BSC) is up +10.5 pct. Bear was so despised at the time ($106) that I set a stink bid price of $100, and the low happened to be $101.23. BSC closed Friday at $117.10

Bill Cara: Saturday’s Commentary & Chat, 08/25/2007 9:14 AM ET

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: November 27, 2006 - Why Warren Buffett Plays Bridge

 

As I've noted in recent weeks, the overall combination of an overvalued, overbought, and overbullish market has historically been associated with stock market returns below Treasury bill yields, on average, even when recent price action has been generally constructive. Two weeks ago, I took profits on most of our speculative call options, though the Fund does hold a small further position on the sole basis of market action. I would expect to increase that toward about 2% of assets if the market clears its overbought or overbullish status without serious deterioration in market internals.

Source: Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: November 27, 2006 - Why Warren Buffett Plays Bridge

I'm sure I parked it here...

 

The 39-year-old, who quit Deutsche Bank AG in April to set up the fund, said in a telephone interview he amassed ``thousands of pounds'' in fines from unpaid congestion-charge fees and taxes. Authorities seized the blue Maserati Cambiocorsa in late May. Des Pallieres didn't realize it had been taken until this month.

``I was distracted by the market turmoil,'' said Des Pallieres, who doesn't use the car during the week because he can walk to his office in the St. James's district of London in 15 minutes. ``My assistant at Deutsche Bank used to take care of the road tax.''

Source: Bloomberg.com: Exclusive

Buffett on what it's worth...

What you hope to get is usually different than what you'll actually get, and the spread increases as demand decreases.  Banks are finding this out the hard way. 

In one way, I'm sympathetic to the institutional reluctance to face the music. I'd give a lot to mark my weight to "model" rather than to "market."

Source: Jason Kelly | Home

Current Exit Price – Is it Fair Value?, FASB Statement No. 157 Fair Value Measurements, Deloitte Survey, Developments, SFAS 157, IASB/FASB - Deloitte & Touche

 

Deloitte Survey
A survey carried out in the US of 1,500 participants across a range of industries showed that only six percent of companies have assessed how Statement 157 will impact the valuation of their assets and liabilities, even though it takes effect in a few months.

Approximately half of the participants indicated that the requirement to apply exit price vs. entry price when assessing an asset’s fair value would have some effect on their company – but, as yet, many had done little to quantify the impact.

Approximately half also believed that the provisions of Statement 157 will result in the increased use of valuation specialists at their companies.

Deloitte US comments that while Statement 157 provides clearer guidelines for the valuation process, early consideration of its provisions is key.  Corporate executives signing off on company financial statements need to ensure that the new rules are adhered to, so that both they and their companies are protected.

Source: Current Exit Price – Is it Fair Value?, FASB Statement No. 157 Fair Value Measurements, Deloitte Survey, Developments, SFAS 157, IASB/FASB - Deloitte & Touche

Mark to Make-Believe - Accounting Standards & Keeping it Real

 Someone's been cooking the books perhaps?  What does Level 3 Accounting really mean?

The Rub

Here's the rub: The footnotes show the vast majority of the $2.24 billion in derivative losses were Level 1 or Level 2, while the $2.01 billion in MSR gains were all Level 3.

In other words, it's a safe bet the losses were real, while the gains had all the substance of a prayer. Indeed, Wells Fargo said in its Aug. 6 quarterly report that ``the valuation of MSRs can be highly subjective and involve complex judgments by management about matters that are inherently unpredictable.''

Moreover, to get to minus $225 million for ``market-related valuation changes to MSRs, net of hedge results,'' Wells Fargo excluded the other $808 million in MSR losses, meaning these fair-value changes weren't hedged at all.

Source: Bloomberg.com: Opinion

Mortgage crisis widens at Accredited, HSBC, Lehman | Business | Reuters

12,600 jobs @ $40k/year is $480,000,000.

Mortgage lenders announced plans to cut more than 4,000 jobs, bringing the total of announced housing-related job losses since Thursday to more than 12,600. Many of the cuts related to subprime lending, which involves loans to people with weaker credit.

"There is no functioning subprime market," said Bose George, a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. analyst. "This is the only way to weather the storm. Cut the work force, stop making loans they can't sell, and hope things get better."

Source: Mortgage crisis widens at Accredited, HSBC, Lehman | Business | Reuters

Command and Conquer - Yuri's Revenge

 
Yuri is master...  I'm not sure how many time's I've played this game, but if it was a job I would be retired by now.  Perhaps the game itself turns humans into zombies - I wouldn't be surprised.

Playing C&C is sort of like Zazen meditation, but with tanks  and airplanes blowing things up instead of Buddhist priests sitting around.

So why am I not surprised that Russia is fulfilling the C&C plot?

Major-general of the reserve of the Russian Federal Custodial Service Boris Ratnikov tells that Russia and other countries work on making special devices that turn humans into zombies.

Russians have psychotronic weapon to zombie people

Source: Russians have psychotronic weapon to zombie people - Pravda.Ru

Grad Money Matters: What I Do to Live Frugally

After the last couple of weeks in capital markets, many people will be reading blogs like these.... 

And if you are looking for inspiration about what others in the blogosphere are doing to stay frugal, here are some good reads –

• What I Do to Live Frugally @ Mapgirl's Fiscal Challenge.
• 25 Things We Do To Save Money @ Money, Matter and More Musings
• Strategy - being frugal @ Savvy Saver.
• Four ways I live frugally @ Stop Buying Crap.
• 3 Ways I Live Frugally Without Feeling Deprived @ My Money Blog.
• Green Living is Good for the Pocketbook @ Suddenly Frugal.
• Things I Do to Save Money @ Cal Girl Finance.
• What can one person really do to make a difference? @ The Good Human.

Source: Grad Money Matters: What I Do to Live Frugally

The Big Picture | Some More Housing Charts

 

On Tuesday, we told the Housing story using mostly words. Today, we'll go with an only-pictures review:

>
More Mortgage resets are coming:

Chart via At These Levels

The Big Picture | Some More Housing Charts

Absence of liquidity = free?

 Brother can you spare a dime?  How about $130.2 billion then?

The European Central Bank, in an unprecedented response to a sudden demand for cash from banks, loaned 94.8 billion euros ($130.2 billion). Overnight lending rates banks charge each other jumped to the highest in six years. The London interbank offered rate in dollars rose to 5.86 percent today from 5.35 percent and in euros gained to 4.31 percent from 4.11 percent.

`Sign of Panic'

``Today's step by the ECB looks like a sign of panic,'' said Sergi Martin, who helps oversee $9.6 billion at Credit Andorra in Andorra. ``We might see more of this in the coming days.''

Source: Bloomberg.com: Europe

useit.com: Jakob Nielsen on Usability and Web Design

 

I find the UI for this site a bit cluttered and rough, but the concepts make huge sense. 

Feature Richness and User Engagement (August 6)
Interaction techniques that deviate from common GUI standards can create usability catastrophes that make applications impossible to use.

Source: useit.com: Jakob Nielsen on Usability and Web Design

LTCM is really getting back at the Bear

 Me, I'm looking at GKA-GKE for some Bond ETFs.  Fed's gotta make money too.

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said investors who lost money buying subprime mortgage-linked securities got what they deserved.

Source: Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Apparently between $50 - $100 BILLION is a "fairly significant" number in Bernanke speak.   Somehow I think he's right, since Kuwait's GDP is just a bit shy of $100B.  Perhaps "fairly significant" is too strong?

Apparently 15 million people losing their homes is a "slight decline" in the housing market.  I guess that's only a 5% loss in financial terms, if there's 301 million people in the US.  But just like derivatives, the people that lose their homes will send repercussions onto the rest of the population.  Guess this would be a good time to rent out property.

Apparently 20 million people have lost their homes in Asia over the last two months due to flooding.  That's probably less than 5% of the total population.  Sound like something you would bet on in the markets?

"The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow motion train wreck," wrote Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO LLC, which manages about $150 billion in assets.

That doesn't really instill a whole lot of confidence in me.  As my flight instructor, a French Canadian Air Force pilot, told me while we were flying last month, "If we crash, make sure you aim for ze trees and not ze water.  Ze water, it  is like concrete.  In ze trees, we will probably jus' get knocked out and maybe break some arms.  And somebodee will come looking for us, eventuallee."

Glad I'm not afraid of flying.

"Some observers have viewed the large expansion of hedge funds as a rising danger to financial stability, requiring additional regulation and Fed readiness to intervene. I myself believe the dangers of systemic problems from hedge fund failures are vastly overrated. The hedge fund industry is indeed large but it is also highly diverse and competitive. Many and perhaps most of the large positions taken by individual firms have other hedge funds on the opposite side of the transactions. I trust normal market mechanisms to handle any problems that might arise."

Bill Poole, November 16, 2006.

Sounds to me like a father telling his drowning son to "swim, idiot!" instead of tossing him a life preserver, or getting his feet wet.

In the words of the Fed, "Bear Stearns, bite me."

Reprogramming the trade

I wonder how this will affect program trading? 

So now that the SEC has ditched the uptick rule, how does this affect the market's major players? Let's see…

• Individual Investors: Longer-term investors, especially those that only go long, will see little change in their activities. But for anyone shorting NYSE or AMEX stocks, the change could have a significant impact on the ease of getting filled in those short sales, since investors will no longer have to wait for an uptick. However, there won't be much change for Nasdaq stocks, since earlier changes allowed legal workarounds for Nasdaq traders.
• Institutions & Funds: A common practice for "big money" on Wall Street was to craftily put in a significant amount of buy orders to move a stock to an uptick before then placing their real short sale order. But now that the SEC has eliminated the uptick rule, short selling will now be more efficient for these institutions and funds.

Source: The Uptick Rule

List of credit risk events over past 2 months

 

SCORECARD: DEBT DILEMMAS

How Credit-Market Tremors Have Affected Junk Bonds, LBOs and Hedge Funds

The days of easy credit may be coming to an end. The jitters began with losses at two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in subprime-mortgage debt that now are worth almost nothing. And over the past few weeks, a string of companies has delayed or canceled debt offerings, a sign that investors may be less interested in debt deals that don't adequately reward them for potential risk.    — Compiled by Annelena Lobb and Cassandra Vinograd

Source: WSJ.com

LTCM getting some retribution?

 

MARKET ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal.

July 31, 2007

Bear Stearns, already forced to shut two hedge funds that bet heavily on the risky subprime-mortgage market, is now facing big losses in a third fund that has roughly $900 million in mortgage investments, according to people familiar with the matter.

The $850 million Bear Stearns Asset-Backed Securities Fund has suspended investor redemptions and expects losses in July.

Also, Japan down over 1% right now.

Posted by: onlineaces at July 31, 2007 10:22 PM

Source: Bill Cara: Cara’s Daily Commentary, Tues., July 31, 2007, 11:09 AM

Jul 30, 2007 Rich Investor, Poor Investor David Morgan 321gold

 

Move forward to the peak in silver prices in early 1980, and that same median home would cost one-third as much in terms of silver. Quite a move in just a few years, don't you think? This of course will bring many questions to mind, because most real estate investors are partial to the investment class that they understand and have experienced for some time. Real estate opportunities still exist, but the overall trend has shifted. In plain words, it will be far easier to make money in the precious metals over the next several years than in real estate.

Source: Jul 30, 2007 Rich Investor, Poor Investor David Morgan 321gold

BC STATS: Major Projects Inventory

 

The British Columbia Major Projects Inventory is a comprehensive database containing information on major development activities in British Columbia. Information on the location and status of capital projects over $15 million (Cdn.) in capital cost, or $20 million in the Lower Mainland area, for mining, oil and gas, manufacturing, transportation, utilities, hotel and residential construction projects are all available at your fingertips.

Source: BC STATS: Major Projects Inventory

Smith Manoeuvre

The key is paying off your mortgage as quickly as  possible, no matter what technique you use.  This technique may be quite a bit riskier than what most people would be able to stomach. However, it would  be an interesting way to build assets in the equity market while leveraging your house.

How about doing the same thing with your car?  My guess would be the interest on a bank car loan would be too high for any rate of return in stock to matter, and it's probably better to just run a margined account.

Comments from a Bill Cara blog reader:

As to your point about owning vs investing in the stock market, I've just done a little reading about how to do both. In Canada we can not deduct the interest on our mortgage. Fraser Smith (from Victoria, BC) has come up with a strategy called "The Smith Manoeuvre" http://www.smithman.net/home.html and has written a book on the subject. A blog that has quite a bit of information on this is: http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/the-smith-manoeuvre-a-wealth-strategy-part-1.htm

In a nutshell, you set up two mortgages - home equity line of credit (HELOC) and a regular mortgage. With every mortgage payment you increase the amount in your HELOC by your mortage amount and invest that money in income producing entities. At tax time you deduct the interest paid on your HELOC. You have to be comfortable with leverage as you will not be reducing the amount borrowed until the regular mortage is paid off. There are obviously a lot more details but no sense wasting everyone's time by giving more info.

I have not used the manoeuvre as I am fortunate to not have a mortgage so haven't really studied it. For people that are trying to decide whether to pay down their mortgage as fast as possible, or invest, this is maybe an option.

Source: Bill Cara: Bill Cara’s Saturday Report, 05/26/2007 11:48 AM

Lunch is for wimps...

 

A sequel to classic 1987 film Wall Street is to be made with Michael Douglas returning as money-crazed mogul Gordon Gekko, according to reports.

Source: BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Wall Street sequel 'to be made'

The sequel will be called Money Never Sleeps, which is odd since there is  already a 2000 documentary called this on IMDB.  Coincidentally, the documentary is about the original Wall Street movie.

Patternz -- Pattern Recognition Software

 

Patternz is a Windows based program that automatically finds chart patterns. It has these features.

• Finds 66 unique chart patterns (see Patterns Form)
• Finds 105 candlestick patterns (see Patterns Form, Candles or Patterns button)
• Allows the selection of chart patterns with the best overall performance, fewest failures, reversals, and continuations (see the Patterns form)
• Scans files to find patterns and lists results (see List Form)
• Allows up to 9 criteria to select patterns for performance (radio buttons on List Form)
• Sorts selected chart patterns to highlight most recent patterns found (see List Form)
• After finding patterns, data can be placed on the clipboard or Excel for analysis (see List Form)
• Pattern watch lists make the selection of patterns easier
• Security watch lists allow important securities to be found quickly and easily
• Highlights support and resistance (SAR button on Chart Form)
• Tells about tested chart patterns, including failure rates and performance tips (the Tell button)
• Calculates a volatility stop for both up and down breakouts and shows volatility and minor high/low stop placement (the Stop button)
• Calculates pivot points, S1, R1, S2 and R2 (see the Forecast button)
• Calculates a Fibonacci retrace for swing trading (see the Retrace button)
• Forecasts tomorrow’s closing price (see the Forecast button) with back testing capability.
• Detects tall candles which means a minor high or low 66% of the time (give or take a day).
• Has trendline support – click and drag the mouse (see the Chart Form)
• Volume ticks show pattern end points, which helps with volume trend and shape analysis.
• Supports bar or candlestick charts
• Extensive help, just press F1 or look at the black help window on each form
• Setup allows the tuning of Patternz parameters (see Setup button on Chart Form)
• Works with a variety of ASCII file formats
• Supports Windows 3.11 and more recent versions, such as XP
• Adware and spyware free
• It’s FREE

Source: Patternz -- Pattern Recognition Software

Flight to Safety

Looks like people are deciding stocks aren't the way to go today.

For those that are not into the risk factor for the summer, it may be worthwhile to check into a 30 day/1 year cancellable GIC.  At current rates of 4.15% it is much better than a savings account or bond, though probably won't keep you much past current inflation rates.

Tools For Evaluating Index ETF vs. Mutual Fund Purchases » My Money Blog

 

Tools For Evaluating Index ETF vs. Mutual Fund Purchases

Even though the expense ratio for an ETF may be slightly lower than a mutual fund, that doesn’t necessarily completely explain the cost differential between them. In addition to any commission costs, there are also the issues of bid/ask spreads and deviation from NAV. These are explained briefly below along with some useful tools to evaluate their impact.

Source: Tools For Evaluating Index ETF vs. Mutual Fund Purchases » My Money Blog

The Perplexed Investor

 

Donchian’s Trading Guides

Richard Donchian documented his trading guides in 1934. He reviewed them in 1974, noting the ones he felt were the more important, some 40 years after they were first documented. The more important rules are reproduced in bold type.

Source: The Perplexed Investor

Market Masters: Articles on Trading

 

So Why Be a Trader and/or an Investor?

The Most Efficient and Effective Path to Becoming a Profitable Trader and/or Investor

The Problems With Fundamental Analysis

Which Stocks Will I Buy?

Source: Market Masters: Articles on Trading

reportonbusiness.com: There's value out in fund land, if you're willing to hunt for it

New offering of low-MER funds, including a dividend fund worth considering. 

A cynic might say that PH&N is raising fund fees with its new B series, but what the company is actually doing is offering investors an unprecedented level of choice in low-fee investing. Other fund companies should take note because they've assiduously resisted this kind of move.

Source: reportonbusiness.com: There's value out in fund land, if you're willing to hunt for it

Flip-flopping, or consumer Credit Default Swaps

 What happens to the credit ratings of these floppers?

Many of these foreclosures were actually planned. A huge amount of fraud was going on, where a group of 5 people would each buy a house; then they would flip it to their designated "flopper", who, with the ridiculously easy lending available, would have no problem getting the $5 million in loans needed. The flopper would file for default almost immediately; he had no intention of ever making a payment. The group splits the proceeds from the 5 flips. 5 new foreclosures on the market.

Source: Bill Cara: Cara’s Daily Board, Mon., May 14, 2007, 8:29 AM

The Great Pyramid of Korea

This is the equivalent of using one credit card to pay off another credit card. Although remaining solvent, the BoK descends further into debt.
Such a scheme is also called a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi schemes eventually collapse leaving the last investors with huge losses. This is why Ponzi schemes are illegal. If any individual in Korea were to set up a similar scheme, they would be risking a prison sentence.

Source: Looming Disaster for the Bank of Korea - OhmyNews International

Fat Pitch Finder Spreadsheet Version 0.2 - Fat Pitch Financials

 

This new version of the Fat Pitch Finder Spreadsheet has been updated to address a problem with my net cash calculations that I discovered as a result of a comment I received on my analysis of the intrinsic value of Microsoft. I wasn’t including restricted cash when determining net cash on hand, so I was undervaluing some companies. In addition, I also added the following new features:

Source: Fat Pitch Finder Spreadsheet Version 0.2 - Fat Pitch Financials

Landing on B&O Railroad - Gates multiplies his cash

 

One questioner asked about a closely held belief that Munger had recently overturned. After some thinking, Munger responded that Berkshire's recent purchase of railroad stocks marked a 180 degree change in thinking about the industry. According to Munger, railroads now have a huge competitive advantage over trucking because of innovations such as double-stacked cars and computer modeling of routes. Munger said he and Buffett were too late in recognizing the changes and could have made much more money. Apparently, Bill Gates figured out it out two years ago and made "multiples of his money" with railroads.

Source: Morningstar.com - Munger Speaks on Berkshire's Success

Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Fat Pitch Financials

 

Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors

 

Source: Top 5 Hacks for Intelligent Investors - Fat Pitch Financials

CXOAG Guru Grades

 

If you believe that past forecasting performance indicates future accuracy (skill, wisdom), you might want to keep tabs on the forecasts of Ken Fisher (and his self-described analysis methodology, "Forecasting (Macro and Micro) and Future Concepts"). If you believe in reversals of fortune, you might follow Bill Fleckenstein. On the third hand, if you expect mean reversion in forecasting (pure luck), you might prefer the "cone of silence". A fourth alternative is to apply Bayesian updating and weight the predictions of experts according to their evolving track records.

Source: CXOAG Guru Grades

thepanelist.com - Charlie Munger on Gambling

 

Warren Buffett: "Gambling is a tax on ignorance.  It is a shame to see governments sponsoring money being taken from people and their social security checks."

Charlie Munger:  "You won't see a casino in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio." 

Source: thepanelist.com - Charlie Munger on Gambling

Personally, I think my credit card is far worse than the Luxor at taking my money, and See's Candies are evil incarnate (because they're so good!) I'm not sure how Warren can eat steaks, Dairy Queen, drink a couple of coke's a day, and still look as healthy as he does for his age.  Must be something in Omaha's water...

Ultimate 2007 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Guide - Fat Pitch Financials

 

If you couldn’t make the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) (BRKb) annual meeting to experience Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger first hand, then I hope that the following guide can offer the next best thing to being there in person.

Source: Ultimate 2007 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Guide - Fat Pitch Financials

Top 20 Private Equity from PEI Magazine

 

Here is a list of the top 20, from PEI:

1 The Carlyle Group $32.5 billion
2 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts $31.1 billion
3 Goldman Sachs Principal Investment Area $31 billion
4 The Blackstone Group $28.36 billion
5 TPG $23.5 billion
6 Permira $21.47 billion
7 Apax Partners $18.85 billion
8 Bain Capital $17.3 billion
9 Providence Equity Partners $16.36 billion
10 CVC Capital Partners $15.65 billion
11 Cinven $15.07 billion
12 Apollo Management $13.9 billion
13 3i Group $13.37 billion
14 Warburg Pincus $13.3 billion
15 Terra Firma Capital Partners $12.9 billion
16 Hellman & Friedman $12 billion
17 CCMP Capital $11.7 billion
18 General Atlantic $11.4 billion
19 Silver Lake Partners $11 billion
20 Teachers' Private Capital $10.78 billion

Source: DealBreaker.com

No End in Sight for Patent Backlog: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

The patent backlog is easy to see at the agency's five-building campus in Alexandria. Va. Inventors wait on average 31 months for a patent decision as examiners slog through 675,000 pending applications, a number that is expected to hit a record 800,000 by year-end.

U.S. patents are worth waiting for. They offer the world's strongest legal protection of intellectual property and easiest enforcement of claims. And they're cheaper to get and keep than patents in Europe or Japan.

Source: No End in Sight for Patent Backlog: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Clifford Irving's hoax, the fake autobiography of Howard Hughes --- The Crime Library - The Crime library

How leasing is better than buying, for the company that leases anyway... 

According to Brown and Broeske's book Howard Hughes: The Untold Story, the men refused to sell their drill, known as the "rollerbit". Instead, the men formed a company known as the Sharp-Hughes Tool Company and leased the drill for $30,000 per well to oil explorers, such as Standard Oil. Within a short period of time, Howard Sr. and his partner become two of the wealthiest men in the country. Howard Sr. was finally able to fulfill his dream of being able to give his family anything they wanted.

Source: Clifford Irving's hoax, the fake autobiography of Howard Hughes --- The Crime Library - The Crime library

In the future, there will be only 4 big computers...

 

Meet Collosus, the computer which would play a mean game of tic-tac-toe...

Mr Simons is the king of the “quants”, quantitative investors who use complex models to come up with trading strategies. Renaissance has reportedly spent $600m on computers and other technology, much of it packed into the group’s 50-acre campus in East Setauket, about an hour from Manhattan. Mr Rosen describes the location as a cross between a university campus and the Pentagon, featuring a gym, a library, a tennis court and an auditorium that hosts academic lectures on topics with little connection to finance. On this campus, and at Renaissance’s office in Manhattan, Mr Simons and his army of PhD’s gather mountains of data on every conceivable security and futures contract and search for patterns, or “signals” that will tell them what is going to happen and when.

Source: FT.com / Comment & analysis / Analysis - The billion dollar boffin

Economic Rebalancing

James Simons' hedge fund, Renaissance, brings him over $3.2B/year in salary and bonuses.  Does his computer program know how to cheat at the tic-tac-toe that is the stock market?

While I believe the 80 PhDs are extremely good at creating successful computer models and trading strategies, I don't need a PhD or a sopisticated computer to figure out what are likely to be the main underlying secrets to their success. The biggest and most lucrative inefficiences to exploit are technical in nature (rather than fundamental). The computer models are probably especially good at detecting when too many people have shorted a stock or when to arbitrage profits out the greedy short term bets options traders like to make. Prices can be manipulated for short term gains or they can simply be driven up almost endlessly for positions the company already holds.

Source: Economic Rebalancing

Moly - poisons the water supply?

 

Those who missed the nickel and uranium runs can take comfort in knowing that molybdenum is the next super-hot investment. This is the metal that can resist heat, cold, and corrosion better than steel.

And thanks to increased demand from the likes of, you guessed it, China -- the white-hot metal has been soaring since January. In part, China can be blamed for the supply issue. You see, back in 2005, Hubei residents blamed molybdenum mines for poisoning the Chaoshui River. In response, rioters destroyed about 200 molybdenum mines, crippling global supply.

Source: Molybdenum Investor News, Prices, Stocks & Resources - Molybdenum: Its Time has come to Rally…

StockInterview.com - Molybdenum Outlook 2007: Metal Lacks the Price Hysteria of Uranium

 

Lots of Moly links here... 

Link to StockInterview.com - Molybdenum Outlook 2007: Metal Lacks the Price Hysteria of Uranium

NZDJPY=X: Basic Chart for NZD to JPY - Yahoo! Finance

 

Follow the winding & unwinding of the carry trade here. 

Link to NZDJPY=X: Basic Chart for NZD to JPY - Yahoo! Finance

CIBC - CIBC Aerogold VISA Card

 

Apply online and receive a Welcome Bonus of 15,000 Aeroplan® Miles when you use your new CIBC Aerogold® VISA* Card for the first time.

Source: CIBC - CIBC Aerogold VISA Card

Plus pay a $120 annual fee.  Not sure what 15,000 miles works out to in terms of $ value, but this may be worth it.

St. Louis Fed: Economic Data - FRED®

 

FRED tells me that inventories are up, sales are down, M2 is way, way up, government debt is way, way up, private household debt is way up, and we're most likely in a recessionary, hyper-inflationary cycle.  And now is a good time to start buying CAD (if you're in the US) - Beaver Tails & Maple Syrup are going up in USD in the near future.

Who's FRED?

Welcome to FRED® (Federal Reserve Economic Data), a database of over 3000 U.S. economic time series. With FRED® you can download data in Microsoft Excel and text formats and view charts of data series. We plan to continually improve FRED® and encourage you to send feedback through our contact form.

Source: St. Louis Fed: Economic Data - FRED®

Lots of Stats Info

 

Link to EconData.Net Home Page

The Internationalist: International Business

 

 

Canada
Alberta Stock Exchange Market Quotes
Canadian Stock Market Reporter
Canada Savings Bonds On-line
Montreal Exchange
Templeton Canadian Bond Fund
Templeton Canadian Stock Fund
Toronto Stock Exchange Market Quotes
The Vancouver Stock Exchange
Winnipeg Commodity Exchange Market Quotes

Source: The Internationalist: International Business

Quantifi - Credit Derivative Models and Risk Analysis for Synthetic CDOs, Credit Default Swaps, Options on CDS and Exotic Credit Derivatives.

 

The Web's Most Comprehensive Listing of Credit Derivatives Resources

Credit Derivatives Links:

Academic Links The world's top academic programs for finance and financial engineering.

Brokers Credit Derivative Brokers.

Credit Researchers Top research practitioners for Credit Derivatives.

Data Sources Sources of real-time and historical data for Credit Derivatives.

Directory of Finance Faculty On-line and searchable directory of Finance Faculty worldwide.

Industry Associations Financial industry associations relevant to Credit Derivatives.

Lists of Industry Associations On-line lists of Financial Industry Associations.

Print and On-line Magazines and Journals Print and On-line Magazines and Journals that cover Credit Derivatives.

Ratings Agencies Major credit rating agencies.

Web Resources On-line resources related to Credit Derivatives.

---

Other Interesting Links:

Interesting Links Other links to interesting stuff.

Source: Quantifi - Credit Derivative Models and Risk Analysis for Synthetic CDOs, Credit Default Swaps, Options on CDS and Exotic Credit Derivatives.

DuPont's Small Miracle [Fool.com] April 17, 2007

 

I don't expect the company to amend its tagline anytime soon to "the miracle of nanoscience," although it very well could. But I do expect it to profit from the coming nanotechnology revolution. It was clear from Chowdry's presentation that management understands how the "small" science will enable some very big changes in the century to come.

Source: DuPont's Small Miracle [Fool.com] April 17, 2007

Central bank websites

 

Albania:
Bank of Albania

Algeria:
Bank of Algeria

Argentina:
Central Bank of Argentina

Armenia:
Central Bank of Armenia

Aruba:
Central Bank of Aruba

Australia:
Reserve Bank of Australia

Austria:
Austrian National Bank

Azerbaijan:
National Bank of Azerbaijan

Bahamas:
Central Bank of The Bahamas

Bahrain:
Central Bank of Bahrain

Bangladesh:
Bangladesh Bank

Barbados:
Central Bank of Barbados

Belarus:
National Bank of the Republic of Belarus

Belgium:
National Bank of Belgium

Belize:
Central Bank of Belize

Bermuda:
Bermuda Monetary Authority

Bhutan:
Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan

Benin:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Bolivia:
Central Bank of Bolivia

Bosnia:
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana:
Bank of Botswana

Brazil:
Central Bank of Brazil

Bulgaria:
Bulgarian National Bank

Burkina Faso:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Cambodia:
National Bank of Cambodia

Cameroon:
Bank of Central African States

Canada:
Bank of Canada - Banque du Canada

Cayman Islands:
Cayman Islands Monetary Authority

Central African Republic:
Bank of Central African States

Chad:
Bank of Central African States

Chile:
Central Bank of Chile

China:
The People's Bank of China

Colombia:
Bank of the Republic

Comoros:
Central Bank of Comoros

Congo:
Bank of Central African States

Costa Rica:
Central Bank of Costa Rica

Côte d'Ivoire:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Croatia:
Croatian National Bank

Cuba:
Central Bank of Cuba

Cyprus:
Central Bank of Cyprus

Czech Republic:
Czech National Bank

Denmark:
National Bank of Denmark

Dominican Republic:
Central Bank of the Dominican Republic

East Caribbean area:
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

Ecuador:
Central Bank of Ecuador

Egypt:
Central Bank of Egypt

El Salvador:
Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea:
Bank of Central African States

Estonia:
Bank of Estonia

Ethiopia:
National Bank of Ethiopia

European Union:
European Central Bank

Fiji:
Reserve Bank of Fiji

Finland:
Bank of Finland

France:
Bank of France

Gabon:
Bank of Central African States

The Gambia:
Central Bank of The Gambia

Georgia:
National Bank of Georgia

Germany:
Deutsche Bundesbank

Ghana:
Bank of Ghana

Greece:
Bank of Greece

Guatemala:
Bank of Guatemala

Guinea Bissau:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Guyana:
Bank of Guyana

Haiti:
Central Bank of Haiti

Honduras:
Central Bank of Honduras

Hong Kong:
Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Hungary:
Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Iceland:
Central Bank of Iceland

India:
Reserve Bank of India

Indonesia:
Bank Indonesia

Iran:
The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Iraq:
Central Bank of Iraq

Ireland:
Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland

Israel:
Bank of Israel

Italy:
Bank of Italy

Jamaica:
Bank of Jamaica

Japan:
Bank of Japan

Jordan:
Central Bank of Jordan

Kazakhstan:
National Bank of Kazakhstan

Kenya:
Central Bank of Kenya

Korea:
Bank of Korea

Kuwait:
Central Bank of Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan:
National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic

Latvia:
Bank of Latvia

Lebanon:
Central Bank of Lebanon

Lesotho:
Central Bank of Lesotho

Libya:
Central Bank of Libya

Lithuania:
Bank of Lithuania

Luxembourg:
Central Bank of Luxembourg

Macao:
Monetary Authority of Macao

Macedonia:
National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Madagascar:
Central Bank of Madagascar

Malaysia:
Central Bank of Malaysia

Malawi:
Reserve Bank of Malawi

Mali:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Malta:
Central Bank of Malta

Mauritius:
Bank of Mauritius

Mexico:
Bank of Mexico

Moldova:
National Bank of Moldova

Mongolia:
Bank of Mongolia

Morocco:
Bank of Morocco

Mozambique:
Bank of Mozambique

Namibia:
Bank of Namibia

Nepal:
Central Bank of Nepal

Netherlands:
Netherlands Bank

Netherlands Antilles:
Bank of the Netherlands Antilles

New Zealand:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Nicaragua:
Central Bank of Nicaragua

Niger:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Nigeria:
Central Bank of Nigeria

Norway:
Central Bank of Norway

Oman:
Central Bank of Oman

Pakistan:
State Bank of Pakistan

Papua New Guinea:
Bank of Papua New Guinea

Paraguay:
Central Bank of Paraguay

Peru:
Central Reserve Bank of Peru

Philippines:
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Poland:
National Bank of Poland

Portugal:
Bank of Portugal

Qatar:
Qatar Central Bank

Romania:
National Bank of Romania

Russia:
Central Bank of Russia

Rwanda:
National Bank of Rwanda

San Marino:
Central Bank of the Republic of San Marino

Samoa:
Central Bank of Samoa

Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency

Senegal:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Serbia:
National Bank of Serbia

Seychelles:
Central Bank of Seychelles

Sierra Leone:
Bank of Sierra Leone

Singapore:
Monetary Authority of Singapore

Slovakia:
National Bank of Slovakia

Slovenia:
Bank of Slovenia

Solomon Islands:
Central Bank of Solomon Islands

South Africa:
South African Reserve Bank

Spain:
Bank of Spain

Sri Lanka:
Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Sudan:
Bank of Sudan

Surinam:
Central Bank of Suriname

Swaziland:
The Central Bank of Swaziland

Sweden:
Sveriges Riksbank

Switzerland:
Swiss National Bank

Tajikistan:
National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan

Tanzania:
Bank of Tanzania

Thailand:
Bank of Thailand

Togo:
Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)

Tonga:
National Reserve Bank of Tonga

Trinidad and Tobago:
Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago

Tunisia:
Central Bank of Tunisia

Turkey:
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Uganda:
Bank of Uganda

Ukraine:
National Bank of Ukraine

United Arab Emirates:
Central Bank of United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom:
Bank of England

United States:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Washington)
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Uruguay:
Central Bank of Uruguay

Vanuatu:
Reserve Bank of Vanuatu

Venezuela:
Central Bank of Venezuela

Yemen:
Central Bank of Yemen

Zambia:
Bank of Zambia

Zimbabwe:
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe

Source: Central bank websites

Afraid to Trade.com Blog - Overcoming Stock Market Fears

 

This is particularly true and I have experienced this in my own trading, just didn’t have the exact words for the concept. I have identified that my best opportunities and trade success results from the 9:00 - 10:30 (CST) timeframe, and I actively trade positions there and very few if any the rest of the day (unless I am entering/exiting a swing trade).

Source: Afraid to Trade.com Blog - Overcoming Stock Market Fears

TheStar.com - News - City about to go broke, staff say

 

How much does it cost to float payroll for Toronto? 

In fact, the city pays out more than $100 million each pay day. If revenue inflows get delayed significantly, the city's working capital reserve is supposed to cover the shortfall and allow workers to cash their cheques.

Source: TheStar.com - News - City about to go broke, staff say

Market Centers - Hours of Operation

 A list of world markets and their open-close times.

Not all products are available during the full hours listed. For details on product hours see the individual exchange websites listed under Market Center Details.

Source: Market Centers

 

How come the markets are not open anywhere on a Saturday?

Time to Sell? Yup..

 When in May, stay far away... and June, and most of July...

For whoever cherishes market trivia and historical precedents, I dug up the longest Dow Industrials streaks with one day down (since Oct. 1928) using Yahoo! Finance data (assuming they are accurate). I also put the next 12-month high/low in parentheses:

Jun. 11-Jul. 08, 1929 (18/19): 303.27-346.55 = +14.27% (high: 381.17 on Sep. 03, 1929: +9.99%; low: 198.69 on Nov. 13, 1929: -42.67%)

Nov. 19-Dec. 11, 1970 (15/16): 754.24-825.92 = +9.50% (high: 950.82 on Apr. 28, 1971: +15.12%; low: 797.97 on Nov. 23, 1971: -3.38%)

Dec. 11, 1991-Jan. 03, 1992 (15/16): 2,863.82-3,201.48 = +11.79% (high: 3,413.21 on Jun. 01, 1992: +6.61%; low: 3,136.58 on Oct. 09, 1992: -2.03%)

Mar. 29-Apr. 20, 2007 Ongoing (15/16): 12,300.36-12,961.98 = +5.38%

Jun. 15-Jul. 06, 1955 (14/15): 438.20-467.41 = +6.67% (high: 521.05 on Apr. 06, 1956: +11.48%; low: 438.59 on Oct. 11, 1955: -6.17%)

Jun. 17-Jul. 08, 1959 (14/15): 621.40-663.81 = +6.82% (high: 685.47 on Jan. 05, 1960: +3.26%; low: 599.10 on Mar. 08, 1960: -9.75%)

Nov. 17-Dec. 08, 1959 (14/15): 634.46-675.39 = +6.45% (high: 685.47 on Jan. 05, 1960: +1.49%; low: 566.05 on Oct. 25, 1960: -16.19%)

Nov. 16-Dec. 07, 1970 (14/15): 759.79-818.66 = +7.75% (high: 950.82 on Apr. 28, 1971: +16.14%; low: 797.97 on Nov. 23, 1971: -2.53%)

Jan. 02-Jan. 22, 1987 (14/15): 1,895.95-2,145.67 = +13.17% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +26.88%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -18.97%)

Jun. 10-Jun. 29, 1954 (13/14): 319.27-336.90 = +5.52% (high: 449.86 on Jun. 27, 1955: +33.53%; low: 333.53 on Jun. 30, 1954: -1.00%)

Sep. 13-Oct. 07, 1968 (13/14): 915.65-956.68 = +4.48% (high: 985.21 on Dec. 03, 1968: +2.98%; low: 801.96 on Jul. 29, 1969: -16.17%)

Dec. 31, 1986-Jan. 20, 1987 (13/14): 1,908.61-2,104.47 = +10.26% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +29.36%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -17.38%)

Jun. 03-Jun. 22, 1987 (13/14): 2,278.22-2,445.51 = +7.34% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +11.32%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -28.90%)

Source: Bill Cara: Cara’s Bull Board, Fri., Apr. 20, 2007, 7:33 AM

Finding the Short Positions

 

Japan has the answers to who is short commodities..

Source: TOCOM MARKET DATA

Inside Michael Dell's campaign to repair his company - April 15, 2007

 
Will have to see what Mark Cuban has to say about Dell's return.

The model he invented - and means to revolutionize - is "Dell Direct," meaning direct contact with every customer, via telephone, Internet, or Dell's in-house sales force, and every computer built to order. It was a powerful differentiator for many years, fueling extraordinary growth and attracting delegations of admirers from all over the world to Dell's Round Rock, Texas, campus. But it's less of an advantage now as computer hardware becomes ever more a commodity, squeezing margins ever tighter. "The thing I've been saying internally is," Dell says, borrowing Sonnenfeld's metaphor, "the direct model is not a religion. It's a great strategy, works well; there are things we can do with it. But that's not the only thing we can do as a company."

Source: Inside Michael Dell's campaign to repair his company - April 30, 2007

Everyone agrees that on the way from $31 billion in sales in 2001 to nearly $60 billion last year, "we did not absorb the sheer size and the exponential increase in complexity well," according to Paul Bell, who led Dell's expansion in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and was recently reassigned to the Americas. Carty has a more succinct analysis: "You can't grow op-ex faster than revenue. Duh!" Which is why Wall Street is clamoring for layoffs, and will probably get its wish.

Tell Michael how to run his company with this ripoff of Digg.com, powered by Salesforce.com.

http://www.ideastorm.com/

What's next, Vanadium?

 Sprott has IPO'd a Molybdenum fund today.  This seems to be really a niche market that doesn't seem to fluctuate a whole lot, excluding two years ago when there was some speculative surging.

Sprott's Uranium fund was highly successful in helping to drive up the price of spot Uranium through speculation.  This could be a similar play.

China is apparently restricting their exports and keeping mum on their production levels. 

An increase in nickel prices may drive the price of this metal.

Some links on moly.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/Structural%20Change_Denis%20Battrum_March27.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybdenum

http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowCharts.asp?c=molybdenum

http://www.stockhouse.ca/blogs.asp?page=viewpost&blogID=629&postID=15679

http://www.sprottmoly.com/Investor_Presentation.pdf

http://www.sprottmoly.com/Prosectus_SEDAR.pdf

http://www.sprottmoly.com/investor.htm

Sedar has more info...

Source: Bill Cara: Cara’s Bull Board, Mon., Apr. 16, 2007, 8:58 AM

Way of the Turtle - 4 Levels of Competency

 

• Level One: Neophyte - unable to perform and unable to evaluate other’s performance effectively. This covers most people who invest and trade.
• Level Two: Evaluator - cannot perform but can competently evaluate the performance of others; demonstrates a knowledge of the issues and the environment and enough about the subject but may not possess the requisite traits to perform competently.
• Level Three: Performer - competent to perform; can fulfill the basic requirements of the domain but does not have a sufficient grasp on the reasons behind their own competence to be able to help others move from level one to level two or from level two to level three.
• Level Four: Master - can perform and has sufficient knowledge of the traits and requirements for competence to teach others; demonstrates a superior knowledge of the issues and the environment and subject, possesses the requisite traits to perform as well as a very clear sense of the important issues required to move up the competence ladder.

The reasons that trying to move from level one directly to level-three can be so devastating is that it makes it much more likely that one will not be successful or that upon achieving success one will never reach mastery. Let’s explore these two problems separately.

Source: Way of the Turtle

Texans moving elsewhere

 Rapidly, capital is moving from expensively regulated, legally expensive and highly-taxed U.S. to foreign operations that provide a source of cheap labour, operating costs, and tax incentives.  There seems to be a trend to move to Poland, with Dell and many other large companies opening factories over there.

"..take Commercial Metals Co., (CMC ) an $8 billion steel company based in Irving, Tex. In 2003 it bought a steel mill in Poland, where it makes wire rod and other products to sell in Eastern Europe, one of the hottest construction markets in the world. This fiscal year, says William B. Larson, chief financial officer, Commercial Metals will double its capital spending in Poland, helping drive a 49% increase in global capital spending in the company's second fiscal quarter, which ended in February. What's more, the company is currently bidding on two mills in Croatia and looking for more investments in Vietnam."

Source: What Spending Slowdown?

Why U.S. tax policy makes saving a sucker's game. - By Henry Blodget - Slate Magazine

 

The problem is how we tax investment gains. Over the past 80 years, the average annual return on Treasury bills (a proxy for savings accounts) has been 3.7 percent per year. Inflation, meanwhile, has averaged 3.1 percent per year. This combination has produced a "real return" of a paltry 0.6 percent per year. If you got to keep that 0.6 percent, you might still have an incentive to save: A $616 real gain on $10,000 in 10 years wouldn't be much, but it would at least be $616 more than you have now. Unless you're so poor that you're exempt from taxes, however, or so flush that you can afford to lock up cash for decades in a tax-deferred annuity or retirement account, you won't be keeping that 0.6 percent. You'll be giving all of it—and probably more—to the government.

Source: Why U.S. tax policy makes saving a sucker's game. - By Henry Blodget - Slate Magazine

Stockpickr! S&P 500 Stocks Furthest Below 50-Day Moving Average Portfolio

 

S&P 500 Stocks Furthest Below 50-Day Moving Average holdings

5940 views

Source: Stockpickr! S&P 500 Stocks Furthest Below 50-Day Moving Average Portfolio

Silvercorp Metals Inc.

 

Silver Market Review

A Review of the Chinese
Silver Market

World Silver Survey 2005 - A Summary

Laws & Regulations

The Selected Laws And Regulations Of The People's Republic Of China On Mineral Exploration And Development

Ministry of Land and Resources People's Republic of China
February 2006

Source: Silvercorp Metals Inc.

JoeCit: Intelligent Investing - Response to INVESTools, Inc. Post

 Disgruntled employees, a short-side blogger, and the CEO get in the mix on this entertaining feed.  Sink or SWIM indeed.

Hi there…I once worked for INVESTools and was FIRED for trying to change the way they do business. Quite literally and openly, they asked the instructors to have a good story about their investing experience, even if we had to conjure one.

Source: JoeCit: Intelligent Investing - Response to INVESTools, Inc. Post

Atlas - Migration Patterns

Where's everybody moving to these days? 

Link to Atlas - Migration Patterns

Mover Mike Accredited Home Lenders

Mover Mike comments on LEND: 

Isn't it interesting how major investors can make the same mistakes ordinary investors make: doubling up, selling at the bottom and buying a falling knife. They also could be right. We'll know this year! Accredited Home Lenders LEND Farallon Capital Management Sub-prime Mortgage Mover Mike

Source: Mover Mike Accredited Home Lenders

A few things I'll take away from purchasing:

1. Don't buy on price spikes.
2. Don't get emotional with the market.
3. Get out early.

I still think LEND has some potential.  The RSI has cratered, there is an 80% short on the stock, and it's second-largest shareholder bailed, which was the driving factor for the downturn.  However, there should be some support around the $10 mark, since their bailout lender Fallond has warrants at that price, and at 13% interest on 200 mil they have some incentive for it to stick around for a few years.

Disclosure: I own a small (and shrinking) position in LEND.

The Frugal Canadian: Tax Software Reviews

 Great list of tax software, including a shareware one!

Drip... drip... drip...

The new Canadian Uranium Focused Energy Fund (UF.UN) , put out by Middlefield, which just came onto the (TSX) market last week, plans to offer a DRIP with Optional payments as well. The fund holds Uranium stocks such as Cameco, Denison, Paladin, etc.
The DRIP will start in about 4 months.
Distributions will be quarterly.
Yield will be around 5%.
Units will be purchased at NAV, or if NAV is less than 95% of market price, units will be purchased at 95% of Market price.
Optional cash payment minimum $100

Baystreet.ca

Here is a list of posted GIC rates.  Outlook Financial (Manitoba) currrently has 4.35% on their 1 year GIC.

 

Baystreet.ca

XTR - Highest dividend yields

 

Canadian ETF dividend yields as of 2007-03-26 (at ex-dividend price, most accurate yield figure)
Symbol	Annual yield	Category	Description	Q1 dividend	4 quarter est.	Price at ex-
XTR	4.96%	Income trust	Income Trust index	$0.16886	$0.68	13.62
XRE	4.11%	Income trust	REIT index	$0.17707	$0.71	17.23
XBB	3.97%	Bond fund	Broad bonds (avg term 10 yrs)	$0.29058	$1.16	29.30
XGB	3.94%	Bond fund	Government bonds (avg term 10 yrs)	$0.19963	$0.80	20.25
XSB	3.92%	Bond fund	Short term bonds (avg term 3 yrs)	$0.27833	$1.11	28.40
XLB	3.77%	Bond fund	Long term bonds (avg term 22 yrs)	$0.19038	$0.76	20.21
XCB	3.29%	Bond fund	Corporate bonds (avg term 9 yrs)	$0.16716	$0.67	20.34
XDV	2.81%	Stock index	Dividend paying stocks	$0.16159	$0.65	23.02
XRB	2.80%	Bond fund	Real return bonds (avg term 22 yrs)	Based on 2006 dividends at last ex-
XFN	2.32%	Stock index	Financial stocks	$0.32436	$1.30	56.04
XMD	2.17%	Stock index	Midcap stocks	$0.49483	$1.98	91.13
XIU	1.73%	Stock index	S&P/TSX 60 (broad stock index)	$0.33002	$1.32	76.51
XEG	1.65%	Stock index	Energy stocks	$0.33799	$1.35	82.16
Notes:
1. Bank of Canada overnight and LIBOR rate is 4.25%
2. Last t-bill auction (3 month, 6 month, 1 year) all yield 4.2%
3. Canada 2 yr bonds yield 4.1%
4. Canada 5 yr bonds yield 4.0%
5. Canada 10 yr bonds yield 4.1%
6. Canada 30 yr bonds yield 4.2%
7. Yield curve is flat. 3 month t-bills yield same as 30 year bonds!
Data source: iShares and Scotia Capital for bond market yields